Let s all smile today! ~ Cynthia E.

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Friday, November 02, 2018: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Friday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** Let s all smile today! ~ Cynthia E. 5:21 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:36 JerryH: GM All 7:53 chicky527: gm all 7:59 Saffa: gm 7:59 MikeS: Happy Rockin Friday! 7:59 Crosseyed: GM All! 8:00 CRH: Good morning. 8:02 Andy: gm 8:10 Cynthia E: Good Morning Team! 8:10 Cynthia E: Happy Friday! 8:10 MB: GM team, nice smile already Mike! 8:10 Cynthia E: Let's get rolling! 8:11 MikeS: GM Cyn. Thanks MB. Just took the CL break short. 8:11 Cynthia E: Nice job Mike! ^3 8:11 MikeS: Thanks :) 8:12 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:12 Cynthia E: Here is the overnight histogram. 8:12 Cynthia E: Inventory is net long with price retracing a good bit of the overnight gains currently. 8:13 Cynthia E: We were in position for an upside gap; however, now we are approaching the YH, so we could open to test the upside breakout at the YH. 2

3 8:14 Cynthia E: We are opening in bullish stance with some follow through from yesterday's reversal of Wednesday's shooting star, so we just need to see if the bullish sentiment can be sustained, or if selling pressure creeps back in again. 8:15 Cynthia E: 8:15 Cynthia E: Here is the :16 Cynthia E: If we add back the BULL FLAG range we looked at to open yesterday, what we can see is that all of yesterday's session was essentially the retest of the range low, followed by a slow but steady climb toward the upside breakout of the range. 8:16 Cynthia E: Notice here as well that as the overnight range started, the small break did locate SUPPORT near the CENTER of the range prior to the big breakout move higher. 8:16 Cynthia E: So this is really our test here as we get going today. 8:16 Cynthia E: Flags are like balances. 8:17 Cynthia E: If we get good polarity, then odds favor directional continuation; however, if we re-enter the flag, then odds favor a retest of the opposite end of the flag. 8:17 Cynthia E: So as we monitor for continued long liquidation and overnight inventory adjustment, what we are watching for here is whether or not the YH/2737 flag high level HOLDS as new support. 8:18 Cynthia E: If so, stance remains bullish and we'll look for new swing highs above the 2764 range, if we fail at 2737 and re-enter, then we'll expect a return to the HW and Low of the flag. 8:18 Cynthia E: The low of the flag was 2706 (which puts us into retesting the gap that takes us back to 61.8% at :18 Cynthia E: So that's our bigger picture outline if you will. 8:20 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:20 Cynthia E: Here is the :20 Cynthia E: I added in today's YH around 2741, and a line there at the bull flag high at :20 Cynthia E: So that is our POLARITY test in the larger time frame. 8:21 Cynthia E: And we can see that the retest of the YH swing high and that overnight swing high aligns with our polarity test even in the 3600 time frame. 8:21 Cynthia E: We can also see, as Mike recognized, that the overnight range topped out a bit and developed an M top pattern. 8:21 Cynthia E: That was the CL Break Short he captured. 8:22 Cynthia E: So we need to see if that weakness develops into a full reversal to cause re-entry into the bigger bull flag, or if buyers step back in and hold at the POLARITY test to start aiming for upside continuation. 8:22 Cynthia E: Let's get our levels. 8:24 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:24 Cynthia E: GREEN is at the ONH swing high at :24 Cynthia E: The POLARITY is at the YH / flag high at / :25 Cynthia E: RED is currently down at as the TARGET swing low. 8:25 Cynthia E: We do not quite have a NEW RED line for the CL Retest Short. Price has not bounced high enough yet to establish another new swing low. 8:25 Cynthia E: Okay! 5 mins to go - take the final time for review and focus. 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: And we're off! 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :30 Cynthia E: So we still ended up opening with an upside gap. Gap rules in play 8:36 Cynthia E: Possible RED line here at 2747, but I'd prefer to see a bit more increase prior to the break down. 8:41 Cynthia E: Here we go! 8:41 Cynthia E: Now if we come back down the level has better validity. 8:42 Cynthia E: That said, we have to still be cautious of TEST TARGETS below. 8:43 Andy: 5 pt gap, higher odds can get closed in same session 8:49 Cynthia E: Agree Andy 8:49 Cynthia E: Doesn't leave too much room there for them to press through, which makes it easier for them to achieve. 8:50 Andy: 200d hr chart, tested in globex and rejected, bulls need a close above on daily 8:54 Andy: AAPL miss, rest of momo has to work harder, thinking bulls will not wait around too long today if more weakness comes in 8:55 Cynthia E: Mini - GREEN line now = :57 Cynthia E: Here is the RED line test 5

6 8:58 MikeS: No go 8:58 Cynthia E: If we get the close below 2747, the TARGET is the gap fill. 8:58 Cynthia E: Correct hammer close there on that bar 8:58 Andy: time change 1m 9:02 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE below, and here is the test of 2747 as new resistance 9:02 Andy: +2 off 47 9:02 MikeS: +3 9:03 MB: +2 9:03 MikeS: GJ MB 9:04 Cynthia E: BOOM! Took a little longer there at :04 Cynthia E: GREAT job Andy, Mike, and MB! 9:04 MB: nice cyn 9:05 MikeS: Great Job Cyn & Andy. 9:05 JerryH: nice going guys 9:05 MB: gj andy 9:05 MB: and Mike oops 9:06 Cynthia E: Excellent job getting your points in AHEAD of the gap fill in case we see a support bounce there! 9:06 Cynthia E: Yeah Saffa! Nicely done! 9:06 MB: gj saffa 9:06 Saffa: thx was a little late... 9:06 Cynthia E: Great looking board team 9:06 Saffa: wtg team! 9:06 MikeS: Have an appointment I need to get to so need to head out early. All have super weekend and good trading. Take care! 9:07 Cynthia E: Have a great weekend! Awesome job Mike - Show your CRAZY smile before you head out! ;) 9:07 Andy: 2 tic miss on gap so far, STF players front running shorters 9:07 Cynthia E: Oh! He missed it - didn't type fast enough! 9:07 Cynthia E: Mike finished out way to go Mike! ;) 9:07 Cynthia E: Gap is filled now. 9:08 Cynthia E: Remember we don't have to overlap, we just have to remove ALL the single prints. 9:08 Cynthia E: So on C and on N has all zero prints filled. 9:08 Cynthia E: Sorry *zero prints above, not single prints. 9:08 Cynthia E: Nice! 9:09 Cynthia E: Let's see if we get a nice strong bounce here now for the possible re-entry into the YH/YL range and the bull flag range. 9:09 Andy: ok 9:09 Cynthia E: Crosseyed, are you catching some points on the 3 setups? 9:10 Cynthia E: 3 Setups = Continuation Long / Short, CL Break Long/ Short, and CL Retest Long / Short. 9:10 Crosseyed: Yes. In fact I got 3 on this last one 9:10 Cynthia E: AH! Fantastic - play along with us then! 9:11 Cynthia E: Right click on your name on the member list and put a SMILE by your name! 9:11 Crosseyed: Yes. Paper for now 9:11 Cynthia E: = a SMILE! 9:11 Cynthia E: Yes, you still get your smile - because we practice as we're going to play for real! 9:11 Cynthia E: There we go! Fantastic! 9:12 Cynthia E: It also helps me see whether or not timing of your profits coincide with our signals, and whether or not I should help with recognition of the signals! 9:12 Cynthia E: Thumb's Up = a Walk or $0.50 to $2.75 9:12 Crosseyed: Got it. Thanks 9:12 Cynthia E: SMILE = Base Hit or :12 Cynthia E: CRAZY Smile = or better 9:12 Cynthia E: Trophy = or better 9:13 Cynthia E: The bounce is retesting our stair step or polarity here now at :13 Cynthia E: So relative to our 3 trade setups. 9:14 Cynthia E: The short Mike took pre-market here team was the CL Break Short. 9:14 Cynthia E: The trade we all just took was the CL Retest Short. 6

7 9:14 Saffa: polarity test 9:14 Cynthia E: Yep 9:14 Cynthia E: RED at :14 Cynthia E: Be careful here team! 9:15 Cynthia E: We still have the bigger picture bull flag high there at :15 Cynthia E: We really need to get through ALL of these levels for a stronger short extension. 9:15 Cynthia E: ALL being the YH / YC / and bull flag high and the 50% retracement level is also here at :17 Cynthia E: Breadth is still positive here so far this morning 9:17 Cynthia E: All $TICK bars have closed above the ZERO line also 9:20 Cynthia E: The is showing clearly that this move down off the ONH is just the pull back to retest polarity at the YH / bull flag high thus far. And for now, the NEW SUPPORT is holding. 9:21 Cynthia E: That keeps our stance bullish in the longer time frame. 9:23 Cynthia E: Polarity holding on the smaller time frame at new resistance 9:23 Cynthia E: Testing again 9:24 Cynthia E: I will NOT trade here with already in the bank and so many levels converging right here. 9:24 Cynthia E: But I will watch and see how it develops. 9:25 Cynthia E: See there is a close below 2742, but a bullish hammer close relative to the YH. 9:25 Cynthia E: Tricky 9:26 Cynthia E: If we do re-enter the 2-day range here, then this morning's open would act as repair to Wed/Thurs's 2- day poor high. 9:26 Cynthia E: The excess high vs. the 2-day balanced high 9:26 Cynthia E: Today's HOD is also right at the DAILY SMA 20, and just below the critical SMA 200! 9:27 Andy: time change 3m 9:27 Cynthia E: The combination of SMA 200 resistance with a look above and fail at the 50% retracement would certainly increase the potential for extension to the retest of :28 Cynthia E: Mini - GREEN now = as CL continues to catch up. 9:28 Saffa: stair stepping 9:29 Cynthia E: There is the breakdown to the YC / 50% level (bull flag high just below at 2737) 9:30 Cynthia E: So now we can see that the trade did indeed offer our But going into the trade, with all the congestion of levels there, the odds for the move were really 50/50. 9:30 Saffa: in C 9:30 Cynthia E: Could have just as easily seen responsive BUYERS step in there at the pre-identified support level. 9:33 Cynthia E: Now if there is a bounce, for the stair steps to remain 'clean', you would want to see new resistance at :36 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 7

8 9:36 Cynthia E: Alright! I have to head out just a few minutes early this morning for some home project appts with contractors. 9:36 Cynthia E: Here is the review of today's price action and trades. 9:36 Cynthia E: As mentioned, the M top in the overnight set up the nice CL Break Short. 9:37 Cynthia E: Our patterns remain applicable through the overnight price activity, I simply don't trade them. But they are valid when they appear. 9:37 Cynthia E: From there, as we hoped, we held support initially at 2747 to make the bounce / valley a little better. 9:37 Cynthia E: So when the CL Retest Short confirmed, we had much better odds for the performance of our trade, and lots got some points and/or their base hit there today! 9:37 Cynthia E: Great job team. 9:38 Cynthia E: Now we are seeing nice follow through on the Continuation Short with confirmed polarity resistance at :38 JerryH: Thx Cyn 9:38 Saffa: thx Cyn enjoy the weekend 9:38 Andy: AAPL down 7% so far 9:38 Cynthia E: But as mentioned, when lots of KEY levels overlap in the same general location, it simply reduces our odds of knowing WHICH direction the market will extend on the outcome of those consolidated level tests. 9:39 Cynthia E: Thanks Jerry and Saffa. 9:39 Saffa: yesterday HW close 9:39 Cynthia E: Let's do the histogram review. 9:39 Saffa: wow Andy 9:39 Andy: thx Cyn 9:40 MB: thanks cyn, have a great weekend all and see you Monday 9:40 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 8

9 9:40 Cynthia E: Really getting some serious extension here! 9:41 Cynthia E: But no surprise now! 9:41 Saffa: testing bigger fork midline (from 2600 low) now 9:41 Cynthia E: With the failure at the YH / 50% retracement / and bull flag high - we are now targeting the 'opposite end' of the 2-day balance at :41 Cynthia E: Which is the TARGET to retest the October close, and to fill the gap back to the 61.8% level at :42 Cynthia E: On the DAILY the 'look above and fail' over the Wed/Thurs balance is clear, and resistance under the SMA 200 is clear! 9:43 Cynthia E: So - now team, the question for the close of the day becomes... can the DAILY hold a HIGHER LOW, or will we extend below the level and finish with a BEARISH OUTSIDE DAY? 9

10 9:43 Cynthia E: That bearish finish would also mean we broke below the Oct close, and finished down within the retest of the October excess low. 9:43 Cynthia E: Breadth and A/D confirming the breakdown now! 9:43 Cynthia E: Thanks Andy and MB! 9:44 Cynthia E: Everyone have a fantastic weekend! 9:44 Cynthia E: I'll see you back here on Monday! TGIM! 9:44 Crosseyed: You too. Thanks, Cyn! 9:44 Cynthia E: Have a good one! Bye! ;) 9:44 Cynthia E: Thx Crosseyed! 9:53 Saffa: testing WMA 9:56 Andy: time change 3m 10:00 Saffa: +170 D, its trying... 10:30 Andy: guess 2700 is on the table for support, Perigee , don't know how it works, but markets pivot off of the monthly level 10:33 Saffa: thx Andy 10:41 Andy: take care. Had a good week :) 10:41 Saffa: and you mate End of Chat Roll for Friday, November 02,