A successful business requires consistent preparation! Take the time to prepare your Trading Outlook DAILY! ~ Cynthia E.

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Monday, January 07, 2019: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Monday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** A successful business requires consistent preparation! Take the time to prepare your Trading Outlook DAILY! ~ Cynthia E. 6:07 JerryH: GM All 6:57 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:54 chicky527: gm all 7:55 Deni: goood morning... Its Monday!! 7:56 MikeS: Happy Monday! 7:59 Deni: does the volume chart and the histo chart look weird this morning or is it just mine? 8:00 DRich: Good Morning Team! 8:01 CRH: Good morning 8:02 MikeS: Nothing appears out of ordinary on my end 8:04 tsurf: Good morning all 8:05 Cynthia E: Good Morning Traders! YES!! It's Monday! Yeah! 8:05 Cynthia E: Nope - all good here Deni - nothing unusual. 8:05 Deni: my volume says 22k and 5k for every other day 8:08 Deni: closed and opened again for the 3rd time they look better now sheesh 8:08 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:08 Cynthia E: There ya go - good to hear it's fixed Deni 8:09 Cynthia E: Overnight inventory is neutral to net long with price set to open above the POC and right around the key level. 8:09 Cynthia E: We closed right there on Friday leaving our critical test incomplete. 8:10 Cynthia E: We need to see as January continues to develop whether the long term trend will rotate into a bear market cycle with resistance at , or whether the retracement in December was strong enough to create 'healthy' market conditions (as described in Pg 2 of this morning's update). 8:11 Cynthia E: So our early benchmark this morning is whether the POC and balance high at 2523 act as support to hold the upward drive to progress higher toward a breakout, or whether the support levels fail and trigger another short term inventory correction against Friday's mid to late day longs. 8:12 Cynthia E: Re-entry into the prior balance is likely to set up a retest of Thursday's swing low at , and failure there would target a December low retest at :13 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 2

3 8:13 Cynthia E: On 14400, we can see that we have an uptrend from Friday's early rally, and then a bull flag consolidation late in the day. 8:13 Cynthia E: The overnight range looked above the consolidation, but then traded back in. 8:14 Cynthia E: So we are opening neutral to mildly bullish here this morning. 8:14 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:15 Cynthia E: On 3600, the neutral stance is a bit more pronounced, with CL being very flat following the overnight rotation/consolidation. 8:16 Cynthia E: We are actually below CL, so we need to see if the BULL FLAG holds and resolves back above CL for upward continuation, or if underlying buying weakness confirms resistance and triggers a downside break. 8:16 Cynthia E: Let's get our levels. 8:17 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:17 Cynthia E: When we get sideways swings like this overnight, it makes the starting levels very clear. 8:17 Cynthia E: They simply align with the ONH / ONL swings. 8:17 Cynthia E: So GREEN = :17 Cynthia E: RED = :18 Cynthia E: We might develop some MINI levels inside this range, but if we do they would be very SMALL opportunities (very small point targets). 8:18 Cynthia E: Okay! Take the remaining time to review the charts and reports, and get set and ready to go! 8:24 Andy: gm 8:25 tsurf: gm Andy 8:29 Cynthia E: 1 min to go 8:29 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :30 Cynthia E: So we opened just a few points above :35 Cynthia E: First buying attempt missed the test of the YH 8:36 Cynthia E: Now the pressure is back down through :36 Cynthia E: Mini - GREEN now = :41 Andy: first time in 8 sessions, B period open within N/O period, last 2 times, big down trend days, just a observation :) 5

6 8:41 MikeS: Interesting Andy 8:47 Cynthia E: Still watching here - but I'm having an issue with my DOM 8:47 Cynthia E: Trying to fix 8:48 Andy: morning after trend day, may take a few periods for direction to be settled, if any 8:49 Cynthia E: We have a higher low at , but it is NOT a mini - RED line because there is not enough point room between that level and the original RED line to provide any trade opportunity once there is a CLOSE below :51 Andy: clear ABC pattern on 24hr chart daily, DTF players looking at D point if measured move completes near 50d area 8:52 Cynthia E: I will be right back - I need to close out everything to fix my issue. 8:56 Andy: time change 3m, first time touch RL, buyers came in 8:59 Cynthia E: Yep! Touch to POC for support test there as well! 8:59 Cynthia E: Early range is holding on both ends so far 9:00 Cynthia E: Now the move back through is ramping up tempo and pace significantly. 9:03 Phoenix: GM All 9:03 Cynthia E: GM Phoenix 9:03 Cynthia E: Testing Mini - GREEN again 9:04 Cynthia E: There was the CLOSE above 9:06 Andy: wanted 36 never came back 9:06 Cynthia E: Yes - here is the pull back now 9:08 Cynthia E: BOOM at :08 Andy: +2 off 36 9:08 Cynthia E: Great job Andy! 9:08 Cynthia E: Nicely done 9:08 JerryH: wtg 9:08 MikeS: Good job Cyn & Andy 9:08 tsurf: well done Cyn and Andy 9:09 tsurf:.50 here 9:10 MikeS: Good job tsurf 9:10 Cynthia E: Now the LIS is looking a little weak 9:11 tsurf: thx Mike 9:12 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 6

7 9:12 Cynthia E: Here is the trade review! 9:12 DRich: wtg Cyn Andy and tsurf 9:12 Cynthia E: We started in neutral with a pre-defined channel range. 9:12 Cynthia E: We KNOW that this range means our opportunity could be smaller and our entries need to be GREAT. 9:12 MikeS: Expected 1st test resistance at YH which is reason why I passed on that trade. 9:13 Cynthia E: So once we developed the Mini - GREEN at , that is the level we were watching for a SMALL long opportunity. 9:13 Cynthia E: So the CLOSE above triggered the LONG trade, the pull back to (or the LIS) provided the 'ideal' low risk entry. 9:13 Cynthia E: And it bounced just far enough to get the :14 Cynthia E: I was prepared to take +2 or +1.5 if there was any hesitation, but when it popped the +3 was filled quickly. 9:14 MikeS: Perfect trade entry 9:14 Cynthia E: If there are any questions on the trade, setup, or entry, don't hesitate to ask! 9:14 Cynthia E: Thanks Mike 9:14 JerryH: Good job guys 9:15 MikeS: I did think about it on retest at LIS but passed 9:16 Cynthia E: Yes - it could have gone either way there Mike with the YH overhead. 9:17 Cynthia E: I choose to pursue it because of the responsive buying action off the RED line (as Andy mentioned), and the momentum and tempo back to the mini - GREEN. 9:17 Cynthia E: Now there is another Mini - GREEN at (YH) 9:17 Cynthia E: So as you suspected Mike - there was initial resistance (selling action) at the first touch to the YH. 7

8 9:18 MikeS: Yep 9:19 MikeS: At this point we have an upside breakout failure. Next test at YH is either going to be resistance confirmation or breakout. 9:20 Cynthia E: Agree Mike! 9:20 Cynthia E: Lower high there back at :20 Cynthia E: Liquidation pressure here again 9:20 MikeS: If no retest, target is YL 9:21 Cynthia E: Today's range is suggesting dominance by ST/DTF traders - not OTF 9:21 tsurf: many times- 'money is made by sitting, not trading' Jessie Livermore 9:21 MikeS: Good one tsurf. I'm working on that :) 9:22 tsurf: me too :-) 9:22 Cynthia E: That leaves us more susceptible to possible Dynamic Shift adjustments against Friday's P shape 9:22 Cynthia E: Excellent quote Tsurf! 9:27 Andy: time change 3m 9:29 Cynthia E: Retesting / YH 9:30 Cynthia E: Higher Low at 29.75, but again - evaluate POINT opportunity. 9:30 Cynthia E: A close below there won't offer a lot of point gain with the target at :31 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE above 9:31 Cynthia E: So Chicky to go back to your question from last week on hesitation on breakouts. 9:32 Cynthia E: On THIS trade, we are still inside our initial ONH / ONL range; however, this was also a breakout above the YH which is a LARGER time frame breakout move on the DAILY. 9:32 chicky527: lol I did it again ;( 9:32 Andy: +2 off 39, with idea of IB break 9:32 Cynthia E: So on this trade I would have been LESS concerned with a 'perfect' entry then I was on the initial trade this morning. 9:32 tsurf: great job Andy 9:33 chicky527: got it thanks! 9:33 MikeS: Good job Andy 9:33 Cynthia E: It's okay - you'll get better Chicky - that's why I'm sharing my thoughts here for you! 9:33 Cynthia E: Well done Andy 9:33 JerryH: Nice Andy 9:34 MikeS: Took :34 Cynthia E: Here is the pull back move to retest the YH now for NEW support. 9:34 Cynthia E: And there is the completion for +3.00! 9:35 Cynthia E: The trade offered the opportunity 9:35 Cynthia E: Now you see the difference there Chicky? 9:35 tsurf: wtg Mike 9:35 Cynthia E: First trade was UNDER YH - tested it as resistance. 9:35 chicky527: yes! thanks 9:35 Cynthia E: 2nd GREEN was a breakout above YH - and extended nicely. 9:35 Cynthia E: When the signal includes a LARGER time frame confirmation - it increases your ODDS. 9:36 Cynthia E: Perfect! ;) 9:36 Cynthia E: So first trade REQUIRED some strong entry precision, 2nd trade could have been a lot more relaxed with exact entry location. 9:37 Cynthia E: And as a reminder. 9:37 Cynthia E: I already have my paycheck in the bank for today with the +3 on the first trade. 9:37 Cynthia E: I do not give back paychecks. 9:37 Cynthia E: So I did NOT trade the 2nd trade. 9:37 Cynthia E: Just watched and called it 9:38 Cynthia E: So if we glance over at the DAILY chart. 9:39 Cynthia E: We see support off the YC with extension above YH. Bulls are fighting the good fight to gain extension above and the declining SMA 20. 9:44 Cynthia E: Now given the slow rotation back up toward 49.25, I would look for a pull back or valley to confirm the swing high there PRIOR to the breakout for a new LONG setup. 9:51 Cynthia E: The pull back is not moving very deep - but the consolidation TIME also helps to validate the swing high at

9 9:54 Cynthia E: Testing now at the initial GREEN line 9:56 MikeS: Pullback!!! 9:56 Andy: time change 3m, big cup here on 3600, see if we get a handle 9:57 Cynthia E: Yep! First test confirming resistance. 9:57 MikeS: Shooting star close on :57 Cynthia E: Good eye Mike 10:05 Andy: cud not help myself on that poor high D & E, had to be stops to ONH +1 10:07 Cynthia E: Nice job Andy 10:07 Cynthia E: Upside breakout failure here. 10:07 tsurf: nice read Andy 10:07 Cynthia E: Momentum has slowed on the rally. 10:08 Cynthia E: Again, the way trade action is progressing this morning (particularly with price being around such a KEY level, near ) is very characteristic of the STF time frames. 10:08 Cynthia E: Volume is also confirming that action.. 10:09 Cynthia E: If OTF was showing strength here in a big way, then we would be seeing much larger 1 TF UP extensions period by period, and volume would be higher than average instead of running lower. 10:09 Cynthia E: Okay! 10:09 Cynthia E: That's a wrap for today. 10:09 Cynthia E: Let's do final summary charts. 10:09 Cynthia E: Are there any final questions today? 10:09 DRich: No, Thanks Cyn! 10:09 Andy: thx Cyn 10:10 chicky527: thanks cyn...very helpful! 10:10 tsurf: good here, Thanks a great way to start the week Cyn, congrats 10:11 Cynthia E: 10:11 Cynthia E: Good to hear Chicky. 10:11 Cynthia E: Thanks guys! 10:11 Cynthia E: Here is the final

10 10:11 Cynthia E: Slow start this morning, but we had some early confirmation of our support and resistance levels 10:12 Cynthia E: Ultimately, the indecision resolved to the UPSIDE, and we started making progress toward the PRIMARY GREEN. 10:13 JerryH: Thx Cyn & nice job 10:13 Cynthia E: 10:13 Cynthia E: Thanks Jerry 10:14 Cynthia E: So here is the final histo 10:14 Cynthia E: And just as mentioned pre-market. 10:14 Cynthia E: The early KEY test was whether the POC / prior balance high held as support. 10:14 Cynthia E: It DID, and so we progressed upward for the YH breakout. 10

11 10:14 Cynthia E: Great day here in the market! 10:14 Cynthia E: Everyone have a wonderful afternoon, and we'll see you all back here again tomorrow! 10:14 Cynthia E: Ciao! 10:15 MikeS: Thanks Cyn! 11:04 Andy: DTF players may be in this run after retest of 2522 area, 300m,120m shows it clearly, see if bulls can press to 50d area, failure below 2520 area invites a retest of daily lows End of Chat Roll for Monday, January 07,