Derek Cheung ITIF
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1 Derek Cheung ITIF derektcheung@gmail.com
2 Outline Brief history From a technology and business point of view Focus on Communication and Information Lessons learned Concluding thoughts
3 Early History (1000 BC to 1800 AD) Amber ~1,000 BC Magnet ~600 BC Compass ~220 BC William Gilbert 1600 (Elektron) Leyden Jar 1745 Benjamin Franklin 1752 Alessandro Volta 1800
4 200+ Years of Cumulative Innovation & Invention Volta s battery (1800) Inter-play of I) Electromagnetics (1800~1900) Battery, Electromagnet, EM theory Telegraph, Telephone, Wireless Telegraph Motor, Generator, Transformer Tram, subway, elevator, pump, lighting, refrigerator II) Vacuum Electronics (1900~1950) Electron beam, Vacuum Triode X-Ray, Radio, Television, Radar, Computer III) Semiconductor Electronics (1950~ Present) Transistor, Silicon chips, LCD, Fiber-Optics Building blocks of Information Age Technology Application Science Smartphone (2007)
5 The First Electrical Industry: Telegraph (1844) Cooke (GB) & Morse (US) both filed patent in 1837 Cooke built first working system in 1839 Morse demonstrated the Baltimore-Washington link in 1844 $30K funding from US Congress Morse system grew rapidly through licensing/franchising Became de facto standard due to its simplicity Cross Atlantic cable in 1858 ushered in global communication
6 The Innovation & Invention (Innovention) Model Market / Application Building Blocks Existing Technologies Product & Service New Enablers Invent Features Performance Cost Creative Master Mind Innovate
7 Innovention: The Apple Examples Building Block Technologies Chips, CRT/LCD, battery, memory System SW, Algorithms, Apps.. Market Products The Enablers GUI / Mouse (Mac) 1.8 drive (ipod) Touch Screen (iphone) Features Performance Cost Master Mind (Innovator)
8 The Innovention of Telegraph Killer App (Railroad dispatch) Building Blocks Wires Battery Switch Electromagnet Telegraph New Enablers Morse Code (Alfred Vail?) Relay (Joseph. Henry) Morse (Digital)
9 The Accidental invention: Telephone (1876) Building Blocks Wires Battery Switch Electromagnet Gray Bell Telegraph New Enablers Telephone Ted Vail Harmonic Telegraph concept Voice/Current Transducers Analog
10 Wireless Telegraphy (1896) A classic case of building a new business from science Building Blocks Coherer (Valve) Morse Code Kite Shrewd market focus Wireless Telegraphy New Enablers Maxwell Marconi Herz
11 Technology End of 19 th Century How to Build a coast-to-coast long distance telephone system? Transmit voice and music over wireless signals? Switch telephone calls quickly over a large network? Vary volume of phonograph playback? The Dream Solution was to have a: >> High sensitivity amplifier and a fast switch
12 The Answer is here! --- Vacuum Triode The Edison Effect (1882) The Flaming valve (vacuum diode) (1904) Lee De Forest s 3 rd electrode (1906) Out-of-Box thinking A monumental, yet obscure historical event The triode is an amplifier and a switch
13 Explosion of Innoventions Enabled by Triode Armstrong s oscillator circuit NYC-SF Phone Line 1914 (Repeaters) Radio 1915 Television 1927 Refined and Mass Produced by AT&T Radar 1939 (Watson-Watt) Computer 1946
14 First Digital Computer: ENIAC (1946) Mauchly, Eckert (Atanasoff, von Neumann) US Army U. of Penn (~$0.5M) ENIAC 17,468 triodes, 5,000,000 soldering joints 160 KW power >60,000 pounds >5,000 operations per second MTF ~ 36 seconds Precursor to other computers (Colossus*) Colossus (1941) Flowers
15 The Holy Grail: A Replacement for Vacuum Triode? Mervin Kelly & Bell Labs Kelly s vision Kelly s action? = Kelly Braun (1874) Point contact rectifier Vacuum diode rectifier
16 The ultimate building block: Transistor (1947) > 10 years ( ) Brilliant individuals Multidisciplinary teams Triumph for physics & chemistry Schottky Shockley Brattain Bardeen Teal Pfann
17 Launching a New Industry AT&T s decision to license the technology (1954) Licensees: IBM, GE, Westinghouse, Philco, Raytheon, RCA, Sylvania.. TI, Motorola, TTK,. Early impact: Improved existing products Enabled new products
18 The Birth of Silicon Valley - Shockley s home coming (1955) - Nation-wide talent recruitment - Spreading the seed - The folklore of Shockley and the Traitorous Eight - The unique Fairchild Spin-off Phenomenon
19 Aggregation of Transistors on a Chip ~1960 Kilby (TI) & Noyce (Fairchild) Early days of Chip market Skepticism on cost, reliability Aerospace & Defense funding nurtured the young industry Recognizing the advantages of scaling down chip features Performance, Unit Cost
20 Moore s Law & Its Impact years of exponential growth Transistors on a chip 2x in every ~18-24 months Drives other technologies, e.g. LCD, hard discs. >> A major driving force for economic growth Examples Intel 4004 CPU (1971) vs ENIAC (1946) Noyce flip-flop (1961) to Intel Xenon (2015) 4 to 5.5 billion transistors Multi-functions: Systems-on-a-Chip (SoC) 4004 (1971) 0.3 x 0.4 cm Xenon ( 2015) Qualcomm Snapdragon (2016)
21 How will Innovention evolve? Building Blocks Powerful Versatile Available Continuous incremental improvements (Industry) New Markets / Applications Major Inventions (???) Innovators (Industry, VC ) New capabilities > New features >10X in cost/perf. improvements
22 On Major Inventions All from individual minds; sometimes as teams. Different styles (separate talk) The geniuses The dot-connectors (association) The tinkerers (serendipity) The one-track minders (extreme conviction) Challenge is to Create the right environment Develop the right metrics to measure success Outside of ROI paradigm Deal with invention-to-commercialization gap
23 Lessons from Bell Labs & Fairchild Bell Labs ( s) Accomplishments Transistors, solar cells, lasers Information theory, DSP, C, Unix Cellular, satellite, digital network Reasons for success Prestige Critical mass Stable funding Domain focus Dynamic turn-over Non-competing Dispersion of knowledge Fairchild (1960 s) Role Cradle of IC technology Failed as a business But key to the success of US semiconductor industry Reason for impact Top quality technologists Entrepreneurial culture Loosely managed Create labs for discovery research in health, biotech, energy, environment?
24 Concluding thoughts 200+ years of cumulative innovations & inventions One of the greatest achievements by Human Race The inter-play of science-technology-application Convoluted, Non-linear, and Dynamic; all essential Moore s law coming to an end What is next? Anticipate a New norm. ( 12/after-moores-law)
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