Oyster-Based Performance Metrics for the London Overground. Michael Frumin TfL London Rail and MIT

Transcription

1 Oyster-Based Performance Metrics for the London Overground Michael Frumin TfL London Rail and MIT 1

2 In Other Words Card ID Sequence Number DayKey Origin Tap In Destination Time Tap Out Time Subsystem ID Origin Code Destination Code Direction Timeband Tap In Time Tap Out Time RMD GPO down Early 6:39 7: GPO RMD up Inter-Peak 15:59 16: BSY SRA down Inter-Peak 11:1 11: SRA BSY up Evening :5 : HHY BSP up AM Peak 9:6 9: HHY HDH up AM Peak 7: 7: HKC CMD up AM Peak 8: 8: CMD HKC down PM Peak 17:11 17: DLK HMN down AM Peak 9: 9: FNY ACC up AM Peak 7:16 7: ACC FNY down PM Peak 17: 17: CMD HHY down AM Peak 8:39 8: ACC DLK down AM Peak 7:16 7: DLK ACC up Inter-Peak 15:3 16: RMD WIJ down PM Peak 16:13 16: ACC RMD up AM Peak 7:51 8: RMD GUN down Early 6: 6: GUN RMD up Inter-Peak 15:13 15: WIJ WHD down PM Peak 16:9 16: HHY HMN down AM Peak 7:9 8:5 + =?

3 London Rail Network 3

4 National Rail (incl. LO): Public Performance Measure (PPM) Weekly PPM Results 1.% 95.% 95.% 9.68% PPM 9.% 9 Target 93.31% 3 5 Network Rail TOC on TOC LUL PPM 9.% 85.% 8.% 75.% 15 1 TOC on Self 7.% 5 65.% 6.% Week 1 Week Week 3 Week Week 1 Delay Minutes Week Week 3 Week PPM PPM MAA PPM 95.% 9.% 93.% 9.% 91.% 9.% 89.% 89.8% 91.6% 91.71% 9.78% 89.% 9.3% 9.33% 9.97% 9.83% 9.7% 9.79% 9.% 93.81% 88.% 87.% 87.6% 86.% 85.%

5 Overground Oyster Data samples: weekday Oyster (Travelcard or PAYG) trips between any two London Overground Stations Sample From To Trips Between LO Stations Cards Deemed LO Trips Cards 1% 31 Mar 1 Jun.6M 17K 1.8M 38K 5% Panel Feb 18 Jul 35K 8K 5M 1K Path Type LO Start & End LO Start (End) but LU End (Start) LO 36,83 Included in analysis, should be included LO+LU ,51 Excluded from analysis, should be included Interavailable 8,3 Interavailable? LU,97 LMR 1,593 Southern 1,86 Excluded from analysis, should be excluded 5

6 A Graphical Timetable: Stratford to Kentish Town West on the North London Line 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Caledonian Road & B Highbury & Islingto Canonbury Dalston Kingsland Hackney Central Homerton Hackney Wick Stratford Timetable KTW CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 6

7 Calculating Scheduled and Excess Journey Time 8 min 7

8 Waiting Times by Line by Timeband (wrt. Timetable) NLL Early NLL AM Peak NLL Inter-Peak NLL PM Peak NLL Evening NLL Late Peak Headway Min GOB Early GOB AM Peak GOB Inter-Peak GOB PM Peak GOB Evening GOB Late 6 6 Min Percent of Total 6 WAT Early WAT AM Peak WAT Inter-Peak WAT PM Peak WAT Evening WAT Late 6 Min WLL Early WLL AM Peak WLL Inter-Peak WLL PM Peak WLL Evening WLL Late 6 6 Min Scheduled Waiting Time Headway 8

9 Daily Boardings (Hypothetical Right-Time Operations) Boarding Location CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 15 9 SRA-7:7 SRA-7:1 SRA-7: SRA-7:37 SRA-7:5 SRA-7:59 SRA-8:6 SRA-8: SRA-8:3 SRA-8:37 SRA-8:5 SRA-9:3 SRA-9:7 SRA-9: SRA-9:31 SRA-9:37 SRA-9:5 SRA-1:7 Daily Oyster Boardings

10 Validation: One AM Peak: 3 April, 8 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: 1:3 11: 11:3 1: Richmond Kew Gardens Gunnersbury South Acton Acton Central Willesden Junction Kensal Rise Brondesbury Park Brondesbury West Hampstead Finchley Road & Fro Hampstead Heath Gospel Oak Kentish Town West Camden Road Caledonian Road & B Highbury & Islingto Canonbury Dalston Kingsland Hackney Central Homerton Hackney Wick Stratford Timetable Oyster Exits Delay RMD KWG GUN SAT ACC WIJ KNR BSP BSY WHD FNY HDH GPO KTW CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: 1:3 11: 11:3 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 1

11 NLL Week Other Date EJT by Line (5% Sample) NLL Other Average Weekly EJT (Minutes) Average Daily EJT (Minutes)

12 EJT by Timeband, North London Line (5% Sample) AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Week 1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Period Period Average EJT (Minutes) Weekly Average EJT (Minutes)

13 Reliability: Distributions and Buffer Time 1 NLL GOB WAT WLL 5-5 Timeband Late 13 Evening Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

14 EJT = f(ppm, Delay Minutes,?) Whole Network, AM Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul PPM EJT (Minutes) 1 - PPM EJT PPM Whole Network 1 - PPM EJT PPM EJT (Minutes) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul PPM

15 Transfers: Problem or Opportunity? Or Both? Of trips starting at a station with only Overground services, roughly half end at a station with no Overground services 15

16 Path Choice: Ambiguity or Options? 16

17 ParallelInteravailable Services: Ambiguity or Options? 17

18 Ambiguity: Crowding and AccessEgressInterchange 18

19 So What? (Short Term) PPM & EJT? Excess Waiting Time Excess Journey Time (Weighted) Excess Journey Time (Unweighted) OXNR 19

20 So What? (Long Term)

21 Future Research Multimodal journey times, distributions, etc Assignment of delay to particular services Demand-side inference train and platform loadings Connect with SupplyControl decisions 1

22 Thanks!

23 Appendices (for possible reference in Q&Adiscussion) 3

24 Oyster Data Card ID Sequence Number DayKey Origin Tap In Destination Time Tap Out Time Subsystem ID Origin Code Destination Code Direction Timeband Tap In Time Tap Out Time RMD GPO down Early 6:39 7: GPO RMD up Inter-Peak 15:59 16: BSY SRA down Inter-Peak 11:1 11: SRA BSY up Evening :5 : HHY BSP up AM Peak 9:6 9: HHY HDH up AM Peak 7: 7: HKC CMD up AM Peak 8: 8: CMD HKC down PM Peak 17:11 17: DLK HMN down AM Peak 9: 9: FNY ACC up AM Peak 7:16 7: ACC FNY down PM Peak 17: 17: CMD HHY down AM Peak 8:39 8: ACC DLK down AM Peak 7:16 7: DLK ACC up Inter-Peak 15:3 16: RMD WIJ down PM Peak 16:13 16: ACC RMD up AM Peak 7:51 8: RMD GUN down Early 6: 6: GUN RMD up Inter-Peak 15:13 15: WIJ WHD down PM Peak 16:9 16: HHY HMN down AM Peak 7:9 8:5 1 % Sample for Detailed Analysis:.6 M Trips 17 K People (cards) 5 Business Days (31 March 1 June) 5% Sample for Aggregate Analysis: 35 K Trips 8 K People (cards) 116 Business Days ( February 18 June)

25 Exploratory Analysis Weekday Overground Oyster Trips by Minute Distribution of Journey Times : 9: 1: 15: 18: 1: : 6 8 Time of Day Oyster Entries per Minute Cumulative Fraction of Trips Observed Journey Time Scheduled Journey Time Scheduled Travel Time Journey Time Weekday Overground Oyster Trips by Line Weekday Top 5 Overground Oyster OD Pairs NLL TRANSFER WAT GOB WLL Line Oyster Trips per Day DLK->SRA HHY->SRA SRA->HHY SRA->DLK HKC->SRA CMD->SRA SRA->CMD SRA->HKC HKC->CMD DLK->CMD CMD->DLK CMD->HKC QPW->EUS HMN->SRA EUS->QPW SRA->HMN CLJ->WIJ KNL->EUS HMN->HHY WIJ->CLJ HMN->CMD RMD->ACC HDH->SRA ACC->RMD STO->BKG % 8.%.% 56.% Oyster TripsDay %.6% 1.1% 1.7%

26 London Underground: Journey Time Metric (JTM) AEI: AccessEgressInterchange L&E: Lifts & Elevators 6

27 Alighting Before or At Camden Alighting Before or At Camden 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Timetable Entries KTW CMD Caledonian Road & B CIR Highbury & Islingto HHY Canonbury CNN Dalston Kingsland DLK Hackney Central HKC Homerton HMN Hackney Wick HKW Stratford SRA 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 7

28 Alighting After Camden Alighting After Camden 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Timetable Entries KTW CMD Caledonian Road & B CIR Highbury & Islingto HHY Canonbury CNN Dalston Kingsland DLK Hackney Central HKC Homerton HMN Hackney Wick HKW Stratford SRA 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 8

29 68 78 Daily EJT by Line (5% Sample) Date NLL GOB WLL WAT TRANSFER (all) Average Daily Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

30 58 68 Daily EJT by Line (1% Sample) Date NLL GOB WLL WAT TRANSFER (all) Average Daily Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

31 Weekly EJT by Line (5% Sample) Week NLL GOB - WLL - WAT TRANSFER (all) Average Weekly Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

32 Weekly EJT by Line (1% Sample) Week NLL GOB WLL WAT TRANSFER (all) Average Weekly Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

33 Evening Late Timeband 33 Inter-Peak PM Peak AM Peak Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early NLL GOB WLL WAT - - Late Inter-Peak Evening PM Peak AM Peak EJT by Line by Timeband (5% Sample) TRANSFER (all) - - Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early Average Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

34 Period EJT by Timeband, North London Line (5%) Period Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Average Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

35 1 Early AM Peak PM Peak Evening 5-5 Period Inter-Peak Reliability: North London Line Late Excess Journey Time (Minutes)

36 Linear Models for EJT on the North London Line AM Peak PM Peak Coefficient Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Booked - on time Trains 1 - min late Trains 5-9 min late Trains 1-19 min late Trains + min late Trains terminated before destination Trains started ahead of origin Simple Model Complex Model Simple Model Complex Model Full cancellations Total Delay Minutes Adjusted R