Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

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1 Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments Directorate Monetary Policy and Financial Market Analysis Financial Market Analysis Department May 7

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments * 9 May 7 dummy As of the th of June, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about

2 Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments * 9 May 7 dummy As of the th of June, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) publishes a comprehensive chart-pack about the latest information in financial markets and the macro-economy. Our aim is to provide analysts and the public with a frequently updated, easy-to-use, clear-cut data set, in order to promote better knowledge and understanding of the current economic and financial market situation. The updated chart-pack is published on the day of each rate-setting meeting at pm. Earlier versions of the chart-pack are accessible on the website of Magyar Nemzeti Bank via the following address. Questions and comments are welcome, and should be addressed to info@mnb.hu. * The data sources of this document, in whole or in part, do not fall within the scope of Act XLVI of 99 on statistics, therefore the data contained in the tables and charts are not to be considered as official statistical data. Magyar Nemzeti Bank excludes all liability for any damage caused by the usage of the herein published non-official statistical data.

3 . Development of inflation and underlying inflation indicators Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. May.7 Oct.7 Mar.8 Aug.8 Jan.9 Jun.9 Nov.9 Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. May. Oct. Mar. Aug. Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. - CPI Core CPI Demand-sensitive CPI Sticky price inflation Source: HSCO, MNB Note: Seasonally adjusted year-on-year growth rates (HSCO adjustments). The time series of core inflation have changed due to the change in the calculation method.. Fanchart of the inflation forecast Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan.7 Jul.7 Jan.8 Jul.8 Jan.9 Jul.9 - Source: MNB, HCSO. Note: the fan chart represent the uncertainty arount the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the consumer price index illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. The horizontal lines show the value of the announced inflation target and the tolerance band.

4 . Decomposition of the Consumer Price Index Weight - Weight 7 JAN 7 FEB 7 MAR 7 APR 7 Consumer Price Index Thereof: Unprocessed food Processed food Manufactured goods Market services..... Non-regulated household energy Alcohol, tobacco Gasoline prices Regulated prices..... Core Consumer Price Index CPI without tax changes Source HCSO, MNB decomposition Notes: annual growth rates (%); The time series of industrial products, market services, regulated prices have changed because the method of the core inflation developed by the CSO and the NBH has broken down several items (like pharmaceutical products, the telephone, the other travels, the TV fee) from 9.. Harmonised index of consumer prices - Jan. Aug. Feb. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Oct. Apr. Nov. May. Nov. May. Dec. Jun.7 Dec.7 Jun.8 Jan.9 Jul.9 Feb. Aug. Feb. Aug. Mar. Sep. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. May. Dec. Jun. Dec. - Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate. Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Reference Average

5 . Market expectations for the inflation rate in current year - Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 - Source: Thomson Reuters Note: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.. Market expectations for the inflation rate next year,,,,,,,,,,, Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Feb.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 May.7, Source: Thomson Reuters Note: the red continuous line represents the trimmed mean calculated by cutting off the lowest and the highest value, the brown line shows the inflation target of MNB.

6 7. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate (Bloomberg collection) HUF/EUR HUF/EUR 8. Expectations for HUF/EUR exchange rate HUF/EUR HUF/EUR May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Feb.7 Mar.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 May.7 Q7 Q7 Current rate Jan. Apr. Jul. Nov. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan.7 Apr.7 Jul.7 Sep.7 Dec.7 Feb.8 Apr.8 Source: Bloomberg Note: Bloomberg collection; based on new FX forecasts. -weeks moving average, reverse scale. Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. Note: reverse scale, the red dots represent analysts average exchange rate expecatations according to the most recent Reuters FX Poll. 9. Spot and futures Brent crude oil price USD/barrel 8 USD/barrel 8 Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Feb. Apr. Jun. Aug. Oct. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Oct. Dec. Feb. Apr. Jun. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Aug. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Apr.7 Aug.7 Oct.7 Spot price Futures pricing MNB assumption Source: Bloomberg, MNB. Futures are based on the latest available futures prices. Technical assumption underlying is used in our inflation forecast published in the most recent Quarterly Report on inflation.

7 . Monetary conditions Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan.7 Oct.7 Apr.8 Oct.8 Apr.9 Oct.9 Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr. Oct. Apr.7 -year real interest rate Real exchange rate based on CPI (RHS) Source: Reuters, HCSO, Eurostat, ÁKK, MNB Note: Real interest rate is calculated from -year zero coupon yield and analaysts corresponding -year forward inflation expectations derived from the Reuters-poll by the MNB. Real exchange rate is calculated from the change of the forint relative to euro, adjusted by the corresponding Hungarian CPI and the EMU is HICP. ( January 997=%, increase represents appreciation). Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (year-on-year basis) Jan.8 May.8 Sep.8 Jan.9 May.9 Sep.9 Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Feb. Jun. Oct. Feb.7 - M M M Source: MNB. 7

8 . Real growth rate of monetary aggregates (annualized from quarterly rates) Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. - M M M Source: MNB.. Annual GDP growth Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun.7 Mar.8 Dec.8 Sep.9 Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. - Source: HSCO Note: year-on-year change. 8

9 . Quarterly GDP growth Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun.7 Mar.8 Dec.8 Sep.9 Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. - Source: MNB, HSCO.. Contribution to annual GDP growth Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Source: MNB, HSCO. Government expenditure Household consumption Gross capital formation Change in inventories Net export GDP growth 9

10 . Decomposition of GDP growth Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. - Agriculture Construction Industry Commuity services Taxes and subsidies Market services GDP at market price Source: HSCO. 7. Contribution to annual GDP growth in the region Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Final consumption Gross fixed capital formation Change in inventories Net exports GDP Source: MNB, HSCO.

11 8. Decomposition of GDP growth (income approach) Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. - Wages Profit Taxes GDP value index Source: MNB, HSCO Note: contribution in age points 9. Fanchart of the GDP forecast Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan.7 Jul.7 Jan.8 Jul.8 Jan.9 Jul.9 - MNB forecast Actual HCSO data Source: MNB, HCSO. Note: the fan chart represents the uncertainty around the central projection. Overall, the coloured area represents a 9 per cent probability. The central area containing the central projection for the GDP illustrated by the dotted line (as the mode of distribution) refers to per cent of the probability. Seasonally adjusted and reconciled data. The baseline forecast is based on backcast and nowcast adjusted by anticipated revisions.

12 . GDP growth rate in CEE Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Source: Eurostat Note: annual growth rate. Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia. Change in industrial production May. Aug. Nov. Feb. May. Aug. Nov. Feb. May. Aug. Nov. Feb. May. Aug. Nov. Feb. May. Aug. Nov. Feb. May. Aug. Nov. - Monthly change (RHS) Yearly change (seasonally adjusted) Yearly (original) Source: MNB, HCSO.

13 . Industrial production and new export orders Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan.7 Jul.7 Jan.8 Jul.8 Jan.9 Jul.9 Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 - New export orders (year/year) Industrial output (year/year) ESI confidence index (RHS) Source: HSCO, European Commision. Note: ESI Index is a survey on business confiedence by the European Commission. Chart represents the industrial sub-index.. Developements on the real estate market Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Given licenses (seasonally adjusted) Built homes (seasonally adjusted) Finished new homes (yearly index, original) Given licenses (yearly index, original) Source: MNB, HCSO.

14 . Developement of house prices Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. 7 Source: HCSO, FHB Note: =, inflation adjusted indices. KSH used house-index KSH new house index FHB real house-price index. Household confiedence index (reweighted) Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Jun. Dec. -8 Source: European Comission.

15 . Change in export and import volumes EUR millions 8 EUR millions Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Export Import Balance (RHS) Source: HCSO, MNB calculation. 7. Total volume of retail trade Jan. Jul. Jan. Jun. Dec. May. Oct. Apr. Jan. Jun. Dec. May.7 Nov.7 May.8 Nov.8 May.9 Nov.9 Apr. Sep. Mar. Aug. Jan. Jul. Dec. May. Nov. Apr. Oct. Jul. Feb. Jul. Jan.7 - Retail sales -month moving average Source: HCSO. Note: seasonally adjusted annualised monthly growth rates. The data of total retail sales contain beyond the narrow retail sales the turnover of motor vehicles and automotive fuel as well.

16 8. Quarterly growth rates of automobile sales Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Car sales -quarter moving average Source: ACEA. 9. Business climate indices in the EMU Jan.99 Nov.99 Sep.99 Jul.99 May.99 Mar.99 Jan.99 Nov.99 Sep.997 Jul.998 May.999 Mar. Jan. Nov. Sep. Jul. May. Mar. Jan. Nov. Sep.7 Jul.8 May.9 Mar. Jan. Nov. Sep. Jul. May. Mar. Feb. Dec. 8 EABCI IFO (RHS) Source: IFO; European Committee. Note: IFO: Business Climate Index of the German Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (Average of year = ); EABCI: Business Climate Index of the European Committee (deviations from the long-run average), seasonally adjusted.

17 . The annual growth rate of the volume of imported goods and services Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan.7 Jul.7 Jan.8 Jul.8 Jan.9 Jul.9 Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Jan. Jul. Dec. Jun. - Eurozone USA Japan Source: Eurostat.. GDP growth rate in the EMU, US and Japan Mar.998 Dec.998 Sep.999 Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar.7 Dec.7 Sep.8 Jun.9 Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. - Source: Eurostat Note: quarterly growth rate. Eurozone USA Japan 7

18 . Net lending of domestic sectors of GDP of GDP Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Non-financial institutions Households (preliminary) Government (preliminary) Source: MNB.. Main financial assets held by households Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Jun. Sep. Dec. Government securities Bank bond Mutual funds Deposit (RHS) Source: MNB. 8

19 . External financing capacity in the CEE countries of GDP of GDP Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Hungary Poland Czech Republic Slovakia Source: MNB.. Net borrowing of the households Jan.8 May.8 Sep.8 Jan.9 May.9 Sep.9 Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. May. Sep. Jan. Jun. Oct. Feb. Jun. Oct. Feb.7 - Consumption loans, other loans Mortgages (in HUF) Mortgages (in foreing currency) Total Source: MNB Note: Data on // in display order: -9; 7; -88; - (FX-loan conversion). 9

20 . Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the household sector Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.7 Dec.8 Jun.9 Dec.9 Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. - Housing Consumption loans, other loans Source: MNB Note: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year). 7. Creditworthiness standards and credit conditions in the corporate sector Jun.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - SMEs Medium and large companies Real estate loans Source: MNB Note: credit conditions estimated by lending officers. Negative value indicates easing, positive indicates tightening compared to the last quarter (before 9 to previous half a year).

21 8. Wage growth in private sector 8 8 Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Jan. Jun. Dec. May.7 Oct.7 Mar.8 Aug.8 Jan.9 Jun.9 Nov.9 Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. May. Oct. Mar. Aug. Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Nov. Apr. Sep. Feb.7 Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNB Note: annual growth rates. Gross average wage Gross average wage withouth premium 9. Unit labour cost in the private sector Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar.7 Sep.7 Mar.8 Sep.8 Mar.9 Sep.9 Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. Mar. Sep. - Source: HCSO, seasonally adjusted by MNB Note: annual growth rates. ULC -quarters moving average

22 . Wage growth in the manufacturing and market service sector Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Jan. Jun. Dec. May.7 Oct.7 Mar.8 Aug.8 Jan.9 Jun.9 Nov.9 Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. May. Oct. Mar. Aug. Jan. Jun. Nov. Apr. Sep. Feb. Jul. Dec. Gross average wage (market services) Gross average wage (manufacturing) Source: MNB, HCSO.. Activity and unemployment thousand persons thousand persons Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. Source: HCSO. Notes: levels, seasonally adjusted. Employed Unemployment (RHS) Actives (calculated)

23 . ULC based real effective exchange rate of the HUF Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep.7 Jun.8 Mar.9 Dec.9 Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. 7 Source: HCSO. Note: average of year = %.. CPI and PPI based real effective exchange rates of the HUF Jan.998 Oct.998 Jul.999 Apr. Jan. Oct. Jul. Apr. Jan. Oct. Jul. Apr. Jan.7 Oct.7 Jul.8 Apr.9 Jan. Oct. Jul. Apr. Jan. Oct. Jul. Apr. Jan. Oct. CPI based real effective exchange rate) PPI based real effective exchange rate Source: HCSO. Note: average of year = %. PPI based effective rates changed due to statistical revision on th March 7.

24 . Monthly evolution of budget deficit Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec - Source: MNB, ÁKK Note: Individual dot shows the budget forecast. Cumulated balance. 7. Quarterly maturity structure of the government debt Jun.7 Mar.8 Dec.8 Sep.9 Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Sep. Jun. Mar.7 Dec.7 Sep.8 Jun.9 Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep. Jun. Mar. Dec. Sep.7 Jun.8 Mar.9 Dec.9 Sep. Government bonds T-bills Retail government bonds HUF loans IMF-EU loan FX bonds Other FX debt Source: MNB, ÁKK. Note: Redumptions in the recent quarter are included.

25 . The latest central projection of the MNB compared to other prognoses CPI (annual average growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 7).... Consensus Economics (APR 7)¹ European Commission (MAY 7)..9. IMF (APR 7).... OECD (NOV )... Reuters survey (APR 7)¹ GDP (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 7). (.)..7. Consensus Economics (APR 7)¹ European Commission (MAY 7)... IMF (APR 7)..9.. OECD (NOV ).7.. Reuters survey (APR 7)¹ Current account balance³ MNB (MAR 7) European Commission (MAY 7)...8 IMF (APR 7)..7.. OECD(NOV ) Budget deficit (ESA-9 method(), MNB (MAR 7) -. (-.) - (-.) (-.) - (-.) (-.8) - (-.) Consensus Economics (APR 7)¹ -.7 (-.) - (-.) - (-.9) (-.) - (-.) - (-.) European Commission (MAY 7) IMF (APR 7) OECD (NOV ) Reuters survey (APR 7)¹ (-.) - (-.) - (-.8) (-.) - (-.) - (-.8) Forecasts on the size of Hungary's export markets (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 7) European Commission (MAY 7)²..9. IMF (APR 7)².... OECD (NOV )²..7.9 Forecasts on the GDP growth rate of Hungary's trade partners (annual growth rate, %) MNB (MAR 7)...8. Consensus Economics(APR 7)¹... European Commission (MAY 7)²... IMF (APR 7)².... OECD (MAR 7)².... For Reuters and Consensus Economics surveys, in addition to the average value of the analysed replies (i.e. the median value), we also indicate the lowest and the highest values to illustrate the distribution of the data. Values calculated by the MNB; the projections of the named institutions for the relevant countries are adjusted with the weighting system of the MNB, which is also used for the calculation of the bank s own external demand indices. Certain institutions do not prepare forecast for all partner countries. As a age of GDP. With complete cancellation of free reserves. Source: Consensus Economics, European Commission, IMF, OECD, Reuters poll

26 7. Domestic financial developments Overview Indicator One month ago One week ago Current HUF/EUR spot exchange rate Skewness of expectations on HUF/EUR exchange rate HUF-positions of foreign investors () Forward positions of domestic investors () 8 8 MNB base rate (%) Expected short-term interbank rate at the end of the year (%)*... -months interbank rate (%) x FRA rate (%).8.7. month T-bill yield (%) year T-bond yield (%) Slope of yield curve (Y-Y, bp) O/N FX-swap spread (bp) month FX-swap spread (bp) year FX-swap spread (bp) year CDS spread (bp) x goverment bond spread (bp)** Average spread of USD-denominated government bonds (bp) Foreign holdings of HUF-government bonds (HUF billion) Notes: * Based on forward yield curve. ** Over Germany yield.

27 8. Developments in HUF exchange rate HUF HUF Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 Source: Datastream EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF Note: reverse scale, daily observations. 9. Developments in HUF exchange rate (last month) HUF 8 HUF Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr 7.Apr 8.Apr.May.May.May.May 8.May 9.May.May.May.May.May.May 7.May Source: Thomson Reuters Note: reverse scale. EUR/HUF (left-hand scale) USD/HUF CHF/HUF 7

28 . Emerging markets exchange rate Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 - Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change. Positive values mean appreciation. HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR. Emerging markets exchange rate (last month),,,,,,,,,, -, -, -, -, -, 9.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr 7.Apr 8.Apr.May.May.May.May 8.May 9.May.May.May.May.May.May 7.May -, Source: Thomson Reuters. Note: cumulative change, negative value means depreciation of the local currency. HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR RON/EUR 8

29 . Volatility of exchange rate expectations. Skewness of exchange rate expectations 8 Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb. Source: Bloomberg Note: implied volatility (based on foreign exchange option quotes) can be interpreted as an indicator of risk perceived by the market. May. Sep. Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar.7 HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Jan. May. Source: Bloomberg Notes: based on option quotes for -month D risk reversal; skewness=rr/ Volatility*. Risk reversal can be regarded as a nominal indicator for the skewness of the distribution of exchange rate expectations, while skewness eliminates the effect of changes in volatility. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb.7 HUF/EUR PLN/EUR CZK/EUR USD/EUR May Turnover on the spot and the FX-swap market. Turnover on the forward and option market Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Jul. Nov. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan.7 May Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jul. Nov. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan. May. Aug. Dec. Apr.7 Spot exchange market (-day moving average, LHS) FW-swap market (-day moving average) Source: MNB Notes: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. Option market (-day moving average, LHS) Forward FX-market (-day moving average) Source: MNB Note: forint against foreign exchange deals by domestic banks; moving averages calculated based on deal date data. 9

30 . Open FX-positions of non-residents in HUF HUF/EUR Feb.Feb 8.Feb.Mar 8.Mar.Mar.Mar.Mar.Mar 9.Mar.Apr.Apr.Apr 8.Apr.Apr.Apr.May.May 9.May.May 7 long HUF short HUF total net position exchange rate (reversed RHS) Source: MNB. 7. Cumulated positions of non-residents in HUF and the EURHUF exchange rate HUF/EUR Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Jul. Nov. Mar. Source: MNB Note: Based on daily reports of credit institutions. Due to the nature of the daily reports of banks on FX transactions the components of the statistic do not close to zero. As a result information contained in the data series is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuation. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revision due to reporting error and nonstandard transactions might lead to subsequent modification of the data series. Jul. Nov. Mar. Jun. Forward position of domestic investors Oct. Speculative position of foreign investors EUR/HUF rate (RHS, reverse scale) Feb day 8. Forward agreements of non-financial institutions 9 7 Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Source: MNB Note:-day moving averages. Jul. Oct. Average maturity Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan. May. Aug. Average transaction size (RHS, reversed scale) HUF million Dec. Apr.7 7

31 9. Implied HUF rates on FX-swap market. Implied yield curve on FX-swap markets 7, 7,,,,,,,,,,,,, - -,, - Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan.7 Apr.7 - -, -, -, ON M M M 9M Y Y Y Y -, -, -, Interest rate corridor M O/N Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters Note: implied HUF yields based on trades in case of O/N maturity and based on USD/ HUF FX-swap quotes provided by Thomson Reuters in the cases of -month maturity. 7//7 //7 9//7 Source: MNB, Thomson Reuters. Notes: Based on USD/HUF swap quotes.. Difference between short-term interbank yields and FX-swap market implied yields. Difference between long-term interbank yields and FX-swap market implied yields Jan. May. Oct. Mar. Aug. Dec. May. Oct. Mar. Jul. Dec. May. Sep. Jan Jan. May. Sep. Feb. Jul. Nov. Apr. Aug. Jan. May. Sep. Mar. Jul. Nov. Apr.7 - Source: Thomson Reuters. O/N week month month Source: Thomson Reuters. Y Y Y Y

32 . Net FX-swap stock of non-residents by maturity Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Apr.7 - Shorter than W Between W and M Between M and Y Longer than Y Source: MNB Note: net FX-swap stock is defined as a difference of HUF-buying and FX-buying transactions.. Forint FX-swap stock and cumulated HUF purchase of non-residents Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan.7 Mar.7 - Net FX-swap stock Cummulated HUF buying (RHS) Source: MNB Notes: due to the nature of the daily reports of the banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.an increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and non-resident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.

33 . Gross FX-swap stocks of foreign investors by maturity Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Apr.7 - HUF/FX (below W) HUF/FX (M-Y) FX/HUF (shorter than W) FX/HUF (M-Y) HUF/FX (W-M) HUF/FX (above Y) FX/HUF (W-M) FX/HUF (above Y) Source: MNB Note: due to the nature of daily reports by banks on FX transactions, the components of the FX transactions statistic do not close to zero. As a result, the information contained in the data series on net forint purchase of non-resident investors - and its components - is relevant mainly to evaluate the direction of short-term fluctuations.an increase in the swap stock stands for swaps with a long forint spot leg. Based on the daily fx-reports of credit institutions.calculated from swap transactions between credit institutions and nonresident investors. The MNB does not hold responsibility for the accuracy of the data. Revisions due to reporting errors and non-standard transactions might lead to significant subsequent modifications of the data series.. year sovereign CDS spreads in CEE Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia CEE composite Source: Thomson Reuters.

34 7. year sovereign CDS spreads in emerging markets (last month) Feb.Feb 8.Feb.Mar 8.Mar.Mar.Mar.Mar.Mar 9.Mar.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr 9.Apr.Apr 7.Apr.May.May.May.May 8 Hungary Romania Bulgaria Croatia Source: Thomson Reuters 8. year sovereign CDS spread in Hungary versus CEEMEA composite index - Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - Hungary-CEEMEA composite spread (RHS) Hungary CEEMEA composite Source: Thomson Reuters.

35 9. Components of Hungarian year sovereign CDS Jan. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Feb.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 May.7 Country-specific component International components Hungarian CDS spread (RHS) Source: Bloomberg Note: based on factor analysis on daily CDS spread changes. Cumulated series. Increases/decreases of component time series denote contributions to CDS spread increases/ decreases. 7. year implied spreads over euro rates in year time Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 - HUF CZK PLN Note: Based on swap rates by Reuters

36 7. Emerging markets FX denominated government bond spreads - Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - Hungary Romania Bulgaria CEE composite Source: Thomson Datastream. Notes: calculated from JP Morgan Euro EMBI data. The series are differences between euro denominated (liquid) foreign currency bond yields and euro zero coupon yields of the corresponding maturities. Different durations may result in significant difference in the level of spreads. 7. Domestic FX-government bond EUR USD Jun.8 Jan.9 Feb. Feb.8 Mar.9 Jan. Mar. Feb. Nov. Mar. Mar. 7//7 //7 9//7 Source: Bloomberg. Notes: Spread between EUR and USD denominated FX-bonds and the equivalent US T-bond or euro yields chosen by Bloomberg. We present bonds grouped by currency in order of maturity.

37 7. Interbank yields Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 M Y Y Y Source: Thomson Reuters 7. Yields of benchmark government securities Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 M Y Y Y Source: Thomson Reuters. 7

38 7. Government securities - interbank yield spreads Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - M Y Y Y Source: Thomson Reuters Note: Spread between the benchmark government bond yield of the given maturity and the interbank rates. 7. Yields of benchmark government securities (last month),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 9.Apr 9.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr 7.Apr 8.Apr.May.May.May.May.May.May.May 8.May 8.May 9.May.May.May.May.May.May.May.May 7.May 8.May 8.May, M Y Y Y Source: Thomson Reuters. 8

39 77. Implied month forward interest rate yield curve (based on government securities yields) Implied month forward interest rate yield curve (based on interbank yields) //7 //7 9//7 7//7 //7 9//7 Source: MNB, ÁKK. Note: calculated by Svenson method by MNB. X axis shows maturities, in years. Note: Calculated from FRA-s, and IRS by spline method. X axis shows maturities, in years. 79. Spread between -month forward yields in EUR and HUF 8. Hungarian government bond yield curve and foreign currency bond yields Euro 7//7 Euro 9//7 - - Jun.7 May.9 May. May. Apr. Apr.7 Mar.9 Mar. Mar. Feb. Feb.7 Feb.9 Jan. - Forint 7//7 Spread 7//7 Forint 9//7 Spread 9//7 Source: Thomson Reuters Note: X axis shows maturities, in years. Estimated by the ECB using the Svenssontechnique, based on AAA-rated euro area central government bonds. Source: MNB, Bloomberg. HUF zero-coupon yield curve USD yield HUF benchmark EUR yield 9

40 8. Decomposition of year government bond yield Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 - Risk-free yield Liquidity premia Risk premia Other elements years yield (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB Note: Risk-free rate: German -year rate; Credit risk premium: -year Hungarian CDS spread; Liquidity premium: -year interest rate swap spread; others: based on residuals. 8. Slope of yield curve in CEE Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 Source: Bloomberg Note: Spread between and year local curreny benchmark government bond yield. Hungary Czech Republic Poland

41 8. MNB base rate and money market rates Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Jan. May. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb.7 Interest rate corridor Base rate M BUBOR rate X FRA HUFONIA Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB 8. Difference between the month FRA quotes and the current base rate 9//7 //7 7// x x x x x x x x x FRA-BUBOR BUBOR-base rate FRA-base rate Source: Thomson Reuters, MNB. 8. Implied month forward interest rate curve (based on interbank yields),, 8. Implied month forward interest rate curve (based on government bond yields),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, May. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Jan.7 Apr.7 Jul.7 Oct.7 Jan.8 May.8 Aug.8 Nov.8 Mar.9,, May. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Jan.7 Apr.7 Jul.7 Oct.7 Jan.8 May.8 Aug.8 Nov.8 Mar.9, 7//7 //7 9//7 7//7 //7 9//7 Source: MNB. Source: MNB.

42 87. Base rates and short term interbank rates in the region Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - Hungarian base rate Czech base rate Polish base rate Romanian base rate Hungarian interbank rate Czech interbank rate Polish interbank rate Romanian interbank rate Source: Thomson Reuters. 88. CEE base rates and forward rate aggreements,,,,,,,,,,, May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 May.7 Jul.7 Aug.7 Sep.7 Nov.7 Dec.7 Jan.8 Mar.8 Apr.8 May.8 Jul.8 Aug.8 Sep.8 Nov.8 Dec.8 Jan.9, Source: Bloomberg Note: Based on FRA transactions. Last update: (7//7). Hungary Poland Czech Republic

43 89. Turnover on the interbank, HUF repo, and FRA markets ( day moving average) Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 Source: MNB Note: Based on reporting by domestic banks. Unsecured money market Repo market FRA market 9. Change in government securities of non-residents by tenor Jan. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Jun. Jul. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Feb.7 Feb.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 - Maturing before Dec. 7 Maturing between Jan. 8 and Dec. Maturing later than Jan. Total amount Source: MNB.

44 9. Decomposition of change in government securities held by non-residents (last months) Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 - T-bill maturity Bond maturity T-bill auction Source: MNB Note: Last month is incomplete. Bond auction Secondary market Total 9. Forint financial assets held by non-residents Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 - Government bond MNB bond Equity Source: MNB, KELER Note: Cumulative change. Equity data are not comprehensive, it contains data for large- and mid-cap stocks quoted on the Budapest Stock Exchange.

45 9. Primary market goverment security purchase of domestic and non-resident investors Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 Source: MNB Note: Last month is incomplete. Foreign demand within year Foreign demand over year Domestic demand within year Domestic demand over year 9. Government securities held by non-residents and the proportion to the total amount outstanding 9. Government bonds held by non-residents and the share of the total amount outstanding (last months) 7,,,,,,, Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb. Jun. Sep. Jan. May. Aug. Dec. Mar.7 9.Feb 7.Feb.Mar.Mar.Mar 8.Mar.Apr.Apr.Apr 7.Apr.May.May, T-bill stock Government bond stock Share of total stock (RHS) Stocks of foreign holders Share of total stock (RHS) Source: MNB. Source: MNB.

46 9. The average time to maturity of government security portfolio of residents and non-residents year year Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 Source: MNB Note: Based on HUF government bonds and T-bills. Foreign holders Domestic holders Total stock 97. The turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary T-bill and T-bond issues months months years years years 8 8,,,,,,,,,,, //7 9//7 //7 //7 //7 8//7 7//7 //7 8//7 7//7 //7 //7 //7 7//7 //7 Offered Bid Accepted Min yield (RHS) Max yield (RHS) Average yield (RHS) Source: ÁKK Notes: the turnover and yield data of the Hungarian primary t-bill and t-bond issues. In case of floating rate bonds the yield data are not be plotted.

47 98. Government securities issues, buybacks, redemptions Jan. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Jan.7 Mar.7 Apr.7 - Net T-bill issue Bond issue Bond buyback Bond maturity Total change Source: MNB. 99. Turnover on the secondary market of government securities Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 Shorter than year to years to years Longer than years Source: MNB, KELER. 7

48 . Selected assets and liabilities of the MNB Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Mar.7 - Total HUF liquidity O/N loan -/-week loan -/-month loan Reserve holdings O/N deposit Limited -week assets -/-month deposit FX-swap -week deposit Source: MNB.. Use of facilities of the MNB beside the main instrument Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr.Apr 7.Apr 8.Apr 9.Apr.Apr.May.May.May.May.May.May 7.May 8.May 9.May.May.May.May.May.May.May.May 7.May -8 O/N balance FX-swap -/-week loan -/-month loan Source: MNB. 8

49 . International developments Overview Indicator month ago week ago Current Fed base rate (%)... ECB base rate (%)... -year T-bond yield (%)... -year euro yield (%)..9. VIX Index (%).9..7 EMBI Global spread (bp) 9 SP Index DAX Index 77 9 NIKKEI Index 87 USD/EUR exchange rate.7.9. USD/JPY exchange rate CHF/EUR exchange rate.7.9. Brent oil (USD per barrel)... 9

50 . Major currencies versus the dollar Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change. Positive values indicate USD depreciation. USD/EUR USD/GBP USD/CHF USD/JPY. Emerging currencies versus the dollar - Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - USD/ZAR USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/TRY USD/HUF Source: Thomson Reuters Notes: positive value means deprieciation of the emerging currency. Cumulative change.

51 . Developed market stock indices Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 - Source: Thomson Reuters Notes: cumulative change. SP DAX NIKKEI MSCI World Index. Emerging stock exchange markets Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7-8 Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cummulative change, MSCI stock indices. MSCI Asia MSCI Eastern Europe MSCI LatAm BUX

52 7. EUR/USD exchange rate and speculative positions exchange rate,,,,,,,,,, contracts[x] , Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 - EUR/USD exchange rate Number of cummulative positions (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, CTFC. Notes: Speculative position is defined as a net of long and short transactions. Positive value means the majority of open positions on euro strengthening. Weekly datab by Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 8. Price of raw materials USD/barrel Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan.7 Feb.7 Apr.7 Oil (brent, RHS) GSCI agriculture index Gold GSCI raw material index Source: Thomson Reuters Note: cumulative change except the Brent oil where the scale is nominal.

53 9. Short term interbank rates in the eurozone. Short term interbank rates in Switzerland,,,,,8,8,,,,,,,, -, -, -,,, -, -, -,, -, -, -,, -, -, -, -, Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Jul. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Feb. May. Sep. Dec. Apr.7 ECB main refinance rate M OIS -, -,8 -, Jan. Apr. Aug. Dec. Apr. Jul. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Feb. May. Sep. Dec. Apr.7 -,8 -, M EURIBOR x FRA SNB base rate M OIS M LIBOR Source: Thomson Reuters. Source: Thomson Reuters.. Forecasts on ECB policy rate. Forecasts on Fed policy rate,,,,,8,8,,,,, -, -,,,, -, -,,,8,,,,8,, -,8 -,8,, -, Jan. May. Sep. Feb. Jun. Nov. Mar.7 Aug.7 Dec.7 May.8 Sep.8 Feb.9 Jun.9 Nov.9 Mar. -,, Sep. Dec. Feb. May. Jul. Oct. Jan. Mar. Jun. Sep. Nov. Feb.7 Apr.7 Jul.7 Oct.7 Dec.7, ECB rate 7//7 //7 Fed funds rate 7//7 //7 9//7 9//7 Source: ECB. Note: Calculated -months forward yield curve based on German goverment bonds. Source: Bloomberg.

54 . M interbank and government bond yield spread. M interbank and OIS yield spread Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Jan. May. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb.7 Jan. Apr. Aug. Nov. Mar. Jun. Oct. Jan. May. Aug. Dec. Mar. Jul. Oct. Feb.7 Euro Dollar Source: Thomson Reuters. Notes: Spread between -month interbank rates and -month T-bill yield. Source: Thomson Reuters Euro Dollar. Long term euro and dollar benchmark yields,,,,,,,,,, -, Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 May.7 -, Y USD Y EUR Source: Thomson Reuters.

55 . Y sovereign CDS in the eurozone periphery 7 7 Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 Portugal Spain Ireland Italy Source: Thomson Reuters. 7. Benchmark yield curves of Hungary, Poland, Italy and Germany COPY HU 7//7 PL 7//7 IT 7//7 GE 7//7 Source: Bloomberg Note: X axis is displayed in years. HU 9//7 PL 9//7 IT 9//7 GE 9//7

56 8. Main risk indicators 7 Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan.7 Mar.7 May.7 VIX index EUR/USD M Implied volatility EMBI Global (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters Note: An upward move indicates declining risk appetite or increasing risk aversion. VIX is the implied volatility of SP index. 9. Long term government bond yields in the Eurozone periphery 8 7 Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Feb. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Feb.7 Mar.7 Spain Italy Greece (RHS) Portugal (RHS) Source: Bloomberg.

57 . Emerging bond-market flows - Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Sep. Nov. Dec. Feb. Mar. May. Jun. Aug. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Dec. Jan.7 Mar.7 - Source:EPFR Note: Percentage change of asset under management, //= Hungary Czech Republic Poland Romania Emerging countries. Global bond-market flows Jan. Feb. Apr. May. Jul. Aug. Oct. Nov. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Jul. Sep. Oct. Dec. Jan. Mar. Apr. Jun. Aug. Sep. Nov. Jan. Mar. May. Jul. Aug. Nov. Dec. Feb.7 Apr.7 Source:EPFR Note: Percentage change of asset under management, //= Emerging Europe Middle-East Latin America Emerging Asia Africa 7

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments

Chart-pack on recent economic and financial market developments Directorate Monetary Policy and Financial Market Analysis Financial Market Analysis Department October Chart-pack on recent economic and