Expect Nothing! Appreciate Everything! ~ Holiday Wisdom

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Tuesday, November 20, 2018: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Tuesday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** Expect Nothing! Appreciate Everything! ~ Holiday Wisdom 4:46 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:37 Saffa: gm 7:48 10 minutes ago GOOD MORNING-Momentum trading is the easiest and most common type of trading; however, most momentum traders overstay their welcome. Currently, we are seeing the other side of momentum trading. They will probably also overstay the downside. 7:50 JerryH: GM All 7:54 chicky527: gm all 7:58 MikeS: Good morning 7:59 tsurf: Good morning all 8:00 CRH: Good morning 8:04 MB: GM traders 8:07 Andy: gm 8:08 Deni: gm team 8:10 Cynthia E: Good Morning Traders! 8:11 Cynthia E: Great comments there from Dalton Saffa - thanks for sharing. 8:11 Cynthia E: So true! 8:11 Case: Gm 8:11 Cynthia E: That's precisely what we were talking about. The issue of GREED. Never being satisfied with a nice profit. Always thinking opportunity was left on the table, attempting to chase it, and typically giving most of it back and then some! ;) 8:12 Cynthia E: Believe it or not simply convincing traders to act in their own BEST interest and to convince them to keep good profits IN THE BANK is one of the hardest issues most traders struggle with. 8:14 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:14 Cynthia E: Here is the overnight inventory - we are 100% short with price set to open with a large downside gap. 8:14 Cynthia E: Gap rules will be in play. 8:14 Cynthia E: With overnight inventory short, as usual, we'll monitor for any short cover rally to rebalance the inventory. 8:15 Cynthia E: On that rally, we'll watch to see if the swing low / YL confirms as resistance to keep Dynamic Shift pressure strong against longer term net longs. 2

3 8:16 Cynthia E: Remember here team, the intermediate and long term time frames are still net long off the Feb low, but with the strong break here this morning below 61.8%, there are high odds now for extension back to retest the Feb low which would effectively remove any performance measure that long term portfolio managers had going for the 2018 year! 8:16 Cynthia E: If the short cover rally gains momentum, and we have a strong surge of OTF buyers emerge, then we'll monitor re-entry into yesterday's range as price retests the POC, balance high, and rally high. 8:17 Cynthia E: But if the YL holds resistance, and gap rules remain in force, then we'll expect a directional move in the direction of the gap (down) as the day progresses. 8:18 Cynthia E: If the 100% short overnight inventory is ignored, and we immediately start with strong liquidation actions and high volume in those liquidations, then that will speak to the extent of bearish sentiment in the current market environment. 8:19 Cynthia E: 8:19 Cynthia E: On 14400, we are clearly opening strong bearish. 8:20 Cynthia E: There is a clear DOWNSIDE continuation from yesterday's late day BEAR FLAG consolidation, and the downside breakout includes extension well below the 61.8% (approx the YELLOW line here) 8:20 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:21 Cynthia E: On 3600, the extent of the bearish momentum is accentuated even further with the trend holding not only below CL, but also below the WMA. 8:21 Cynthia E: So we are definitely set here this morning to shop for shorts, but so far there haven't been a lot of cycles or rotations within this breakdown. 8:21 Cynthia E: Let's get our levels. 8:23 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:26 Andy: getting oversold on time frames 300m & lower, see if they rip higher, like to see test of 2667 area, either way bears or bulls 8:28 Andy: will be up to AAPL & MSFT again 8:29 Cynthia E: 1 min to go 8:29 Cynthia E: We do not yet have a RED line in place here because we don't have a significant rotation here just yet! 8:29 Cynthia E: Let's see how it plays out off the open. 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :31 Andy: 2650 soft target # 8:33 Andy: thin DOM again 8:33 Cynthia E: Now monitoring the extent of the short squeeze / gap fill attempt 8:34 Cynthia E: RED line now developing at :34 Cynthia E: There is NO long opportunity here on a close above CL. 8:34 Cynthia E: CL is not a trade trigger. 8:34 Cynthia E: There is no LOWER HIGH at CL that would be broken with a HIGHER HIGH to trigger any long opportunity. 8:36 Cynthia E: RED at , not :38 Cynthia E: Bulls are working around the DO to give it a good fight here 8:39 Cynthia E: Strong volume here this morning - higher than average as expected with the gap. 8:39 Cynthia E: Definitely not quite what we expected for a holiday week, huh Saffa? :) 8:39 Saffa: ha nope :) 8:41 Saffa: don t be rigid and expect the unexpected always 8:41 Cynthia E: Good advice!! :) 8:42 Cynthia E: The retracement phase / short squeeze is still underway here. 8:42 Cynthia E: We need to see if it evolves into an eventual full reversal pattern, or if we just trade up and then extend back down for our Continuation Short. 8:44 Cynthia E: 10 pt increments --> HOD = 61.50, swing low = 71.25, YL = :46 Cynthia E: For 2661 to become a Mini - GREEN level - we need to see more downside extension on the current drive. 8:46 Saffa: bulls trying hard here to hold 5

6 8:46 Cynthia E: So far the retracement is just 1 cycle - just like yesterday. 8:46 Cynthia E: No swings here for trade levels. 8:50 Cynthia E: Now we have GREEN at for the CL Break Long --> TARGET swing low / gap fill retest 8:50 Cynthia E: Heads up! 8:50 Cynthia E: Testing RED for Continuation Short 8:50 Crosseyed: GM All 8:51 Cynthia E: GM Crosseyed 8:51 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE below, and here is the bounce back toward 2651 for the LIS retest 8:51 MB: +2 8:52 Cynthia E: BOOM! at :52 MB: nice cyn 8:52 Saffa: wtg Cyn & MB 8:52 Cynthia E: Well done MB! Great work! 8:52 tsurf: wtg both of you 8:53 Cynthia E: And there is the FULL completion of the trade! 8:53 MikeS: BOOM. Good job Cyn & MB. 8:53 MB: little jittery to go along with this price action 8:53 Cynthia E: Even if you entered on the breakout at the trade has now offered :53 MB: lol 8:53 Crosseyed: 3 pts :53 Cynthia E: Well done Crosseyed! 8:53 MB: gj Mike and crosseyed 8:53 Cynthia E: Great job 8:53 Cynthia E: Nice work Mike! 8:53 Cynthia E: Super Case! 8:54 Cynthia E: Go Fluidity Team Go! 8:54 MB: wtg case 8:54 Cynthia E: Lighting up the board! Great work! 8:54 MikeS: Good job Crosseyed & Case. 8:54 MB: Deni is holding out for 10! 8:54 MikeS: Thanks, I entered at :54 Cynthia E: Nice patience allowing the retracement to develop, and then for the turn back toward the downside action. 8:55 Deni: lol I wish...only got +2 8:55 MB: two will do, that's my policy! 8:55 Cynthia E: I like it MB! That works! :) 8:55 tsurf: lol good one 8:56 Cynthia E: MB! 8:56 Cynthia E: On 30 contracts - even "just +2.00" is $720,000 a year even after commissions. 8:57 Deni: Have to go now...have a good day all. I might get back to staying all day soon I hope. 8:57 Cynthia E: So yes - in MOST cases... "Even two will do!" 8:57 MB: lol, you don't have to tell me! 8:57 MikeS: Have good day Deni. Great job! 8:57 Cynthia E: Have a great day Deni! Nicely done! 8:57 tsurf: take care Deni 8:57 MB: bye Deni 8:57 Cynthia E: I didn't figure MB! I was fairly sure - you'd done the math! ;) 8:58 MB: no, you did the math for me, many times! smiley face 8:58 Cynthia E: Haha! ;) 8:59 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 6

7 8:59 Cynthia E: Let's review our trade! :) 8:59 Cynthia E: We had a trap right off the opening bell for most day traders! 8:59 Andy: time change 8:59 Cynthia E: A quick look or fake out below the ONL followed by a decent retracement move into the gap. 9:00 Cynthia E: But WE know that odds favor at least SOME attempt to adjust the overnight short inventory so we were patient and let the GOOD red line / swing low develop. 9:00 Cynthia E: It developed just below the ONL swing low at ! 9:00 Cynthia E: From there we just had to wait the retracement out, and see if we were really going to complete all the needed rotations for a full reversal, but we did NOT. 9:01 Cynthia E: Instead, we topped out with a tiny M top pattern, and then headed down for the Continuation Short below :01 Cynthia E: The close below signaled the short - the bounce back gave an 'ideal' entry location opportunity, and BOOM! "EASY" opportunity! 9:01 Cynthia E: Comments or questions on the trade or setup? 9:02 Cynthia E: The PATH to success is make it 'easy'!! 9:02 Cynthia E: Stack the ODDS in your favor, wait for GREAT setups, then 'need' or 'require' very very LITTLE from the market in order to achieve your target! 9:02 Cynthia E: That mindset prevents you from 'fighting' with the market to obtain points. 7

8 9:03 Cynthia E: If your TARGET goal is significantly SMALLER than the ATR (average true range) of the thing you are trading, then the fact that you are ONLY trying to pluck out a SMALL percentage of its natural cycles or waves HEAVILY increases your odds of achieving your goals. 9:04 Cynthia E: THAT is your daily OBJECTIVE! 9:04 Cynthia E: Because THAT action and trade plan makes it 'easy' for you to get YOUR piece of the pie each day! 9:04 Cynthia E: And then... DON'T PUSH and don't get GREEDY! 9:04 Cynthia E: KEEP the PROFIT in the BANK! :) 9:05 Cynthia E: Sometime soon we're going to review that lesson that many of you have heard, but I want to be sure all our new members are here, and we have a couple missing this morning. 9:06 Cynthia E: The "don't give back the paycheck" lesson! ;) 9:06 Cynthia E: New RED line = :06 Cynthia E: I will NOT trade here - I have my PIE in the BANK! :) 9:07 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE below :07 Cynthia E: Here is the bounce back to retest the LIS 9:10 Cynthia E: So if you were in this - you would have either taken the WALK there, or you'd be out B/E on the hesitation as you would be protecting prior profit. 9:10 Cynthia E: If this is your FIRST trade of the day, you could be a bit more liberal with your mgmt at the LIS. 9:10 Cynthia E: New GREEN line now at (CL just overhead) 9:11 Cynthia E: There is the extension for the if you took the bounce entry back at the LIS. 9:13 Cynthia E: There was the completion of the if you entered on the actual breakout bar below :14 Cynthia E: Now the GREEN at 2649 is fully valid with CL just below it 9:15 Cynthia E: It was valid before - but the close when CL was just overhead would have needed to be strong enough to extend both through 2649 as well as up through CL. 9:17 Andy: wonder if today will be the washout with the volume so high & then the squeeze... 9:18 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 8

9 9:18 Cynthia E: Here is the 2nd trade opportunity. 9:18 traderken: Oct, May, Mar. lows could all be in play before end of year! 9:18 Cynthia E: 2nd Verse... Same as the 1st! :) 9:19 Cynthia E: This chart for the 2nd trade is basically identical to our first trade setup. 9:19 Cynthia E: Yes indeed Ken - even the Feb low at ! 9:20 Cynthia E: If we erase 100% of the 2018 gains by the end of the year to close at the YEARLY LOW or below - that will be significantly BEARISH in the monthly / long term outlook! 9:20 Cynthia E: Again! This is This rally started in March of :20 Cynthia E: The AVERAGE Bull market lasts 4-5 years! 9:21 Cynthia E: We are WAY overdue for a BEAR market cycle in the MONTHLY or long term market time frame! 9:22 Cynthia E: We don't have to crash like the decline in the Real Estate Bubble, but we do need to make significant long term inventory adjustments. 9:22 Cynthia E: Aka... we need to retrace to the LONG TERM 50% or 61.8% fib levels. 9:22 Cynthia E: Which hasn't occurred even 1 time since the low in :24 Cynthia E: Heads up! 9:24 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE above and CL 9:25 Case: I've had a good day. Got to go. Thanks 9:25 Cynthia E: Congrats Case! Enjoy your afternoon! 9:26 MikeS: Take care Case 9:26 MB: i'm heading out too team, good luck and see you tomorrow 9:26 Cynthia E: That makes 3 of us! :) 9

10 9:26 Cynthia E: Have a great day MB! 9:26 Andy: +2 off 49 9:26 Cynthia E: I need to step out just a few minutes early this morning as well team. 9:27 Cynthia E: SUPER Day - outstanding trading! 9:27 Cynthia E: Great job Andy! 9:27 Cynthia E: Let me prepare our final charts! 9:27 MikeS: Good job Andy! 9:28 Andy: time change 2m 9:28 JerryH: nice trading team 9:28 tsurf: wtg Andy, nice 9:29 Cynthia E: 9:29 Cynthia E: Here is the final :29 Cynthia E: We've had 2 Continuation Short trades today, and the 1 CL Break Long trade that Andy captured some nice points on! 9:30 Cynthia E: That last trade might have been questionable for some, because it looked below 2649, you might have chosen to step out B/E there due to the hesitation in extension. 9:30 Cynthia E: That would have been a personal call on how to manage that trade! 9:30 Cynthia E: And it SHOULD have been in the context of whether or not you already had profit in the bank or not. 9:30 Andy: bounce off 24hr trend line from Feb 9:30 Cynthia E: More aggressive mgmt if you did already have nice profit. 9:31 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 10

11 9:31 Cynthia E: Here is the final histo! 9:31 JerryH: Thx Cyn 9:32 Cynthia E: Large downside gap opening, a small overnight inventory squeeze (no gap fill) - gap rules in play, we got further downside follow through. 9:32 Cynthia E: Now with excess on the C low, bulls are gaining some better momentum on the 2nd attempt to squeeze overnight shorts as well as intraday 'pile on' shorts! 9:32 Cynthia E: Thanks Jerry! 9:32 Cynthia E: Alright! That's a wrap for today! 9:32 Saffa: +3 9:33 Cynthia E: YEAH Saffa! Congrats! GREAT job! 9:33 MikeS: Thanks Cyn. Also need to head out. All have super day! 11

12 9:33 Saffa: thx Cyn 9:33 MikeS: Good job Saffa 9:33 Cynthia E: I will see you all back here tomorrow! Bye for now! ;) 9:33 tsurf: well done Saffa 9:33 Saffa: thx 9:34 Andy: thx Cyn 9:35 Saffa: neutral bias for now, will we get deeper retrace for an established HL 9:35 Saffa: or do we just grind from here 9:37 Saffa: testing DO 10:10 traderken: only need about 12 points to yest. LOD from today HOD We already moved 30 points from LOD to HOD and holding 10:25 traderken: watching hole fill BCD 10:33 Andy: they did squeeze'em, see if they can hold this 5 wide level here at HW End of Chat Roll for Tuesday, November 20,