We can do anything we want to if we stick to it long enough! ~ H. Keller

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Monday, November 1, 2018: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Monday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** We can do anything we want to if we stick to it long enough! ~ H. Keller 5:11 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:58 JerryH: GM All 7:58 tsurf: Good morning all 8:02 Deni: good morning team 8:04 Saffa: gm 8:04 Cynthia E: Good Morning Traders! 8:05 Cynthia E: We made it through October, and today we start November! 8:05 Andy: ranges look to be smaller with election in the background, thinking volumes will be lower also. Unless of course traders feel a less business friendly group gets more seats 8:05 Crosseyed: GM all 8:06 Cynthia E: Let's see if October's excess can remain intact, or if yesterday's bearish day sets up more profit taking and capital protection sentiment! 8:07 MikeS: Good morning! 8:07 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:07 Cynthia E: GM Crosseyed and Mike! 8:07 Cynthia E: Here is our opening histogram. 8:08 Cynthia E: Overnight inventory is net long, but we are still in position here to open below the POC at :08 Cynthia E: And the ONH failed to retest 50% just above the YH. 8:09 Cynthia E: Yesterday's DAILY put in a strong shooting star which requires confirmation. That means that we need another day to close BELOW the shooting star body. 2

3 8:09 Cynthia E: If that occurs, particularly with the excess high right there at the 50%, then we could see a strong acceleration and completion to 100% at :09 Cynthia E: And of course, that retest will have the long term outlook impact for a potential transition into a BEAR market cycle. 8:10 Cynthia E: On the top side, if today's session can hold support above the YL and shooting star and rally back up and through the 50%, then that support at the October close could start to attract long term portfolios 'adding to longs'. 8:11 Cynthia E: That is what we need to see here for there to be any real continuation of the long term trend. 8:11 Cynthia E: While the market is 'on sale', we need to see big money start to build their portfolios again with additional long shares. 8:12 Cynthia E: If they don't participate, then we just have the ST/DTF time frame trying to drive it higher, and as we saw yesterday they don't have extreme extension power, or staying power. 8:12 Cynthia E: That weakness without good OTF buying will trigger further liquidations. 8:13 Cynthia E: 8:14 Cynthia E: On 14400, we see another large range bull flag consolidation is in play from Tuesday's late day uptrend, and yesterday's mild to sideways continuation. 8:14 Cynthia E: We can also see that our net long overnight inventory is trying to make another cycle through this range. 8:15 Cynthia E: Remember in a channel we're always looking for the CENTER of the channel to become support or resistance (rather than seeing the complete cycle through the range. 8:15 Cynthia E: When that happens, that is typically the signal for the directional breakout. 8:16 Cynthia E: So we need to see here if we can complete the move back to the swing high (which is the YH), or if the CENTER holds here as resistance (near the POC), and triggers the downside breakout of the pattern at the ONL. 8:16 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:17 Cynthia E: So if we add our bull flag range to the 3600, this is the picture we get. 8:17 Cynthia E: And we can see that the waves of the overnight trade are working to create the upside reversal, to continuation above the YH. 8:17 Cynthia E: So we are opening neutral to bullish here today. 8:17 Cynthia E: Let's set up our levels. 8:18 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:19 Cynthia E: So our first acknowledgement or recognition is that ANY trade inside the YH / ONL range is a MINI trade or small opportunity trade, because it will be a trade INSIDE that bull flag zone. 8:19 Cynthia E: So we'll have LOWER odds there, and we need to manage those trades accordingly (take walks, cut losses quickly, etc...) 8:20 Cynthia E: That leaves our MINI levels at GREEN and RED :20 Cynthia E: However, I would not be interested in trading at because the target to 2706 would be too small. 8:21 Cynthia E: So on the TOP side, I will monitor for a possible SMALL opportunity trade, but on the downside, I will require the FULL channel breakout at unless a new level is established higher. 8:21 Cynthia E: Alright! Take the remaining time to review and get set and ready to go. 8:29 Cynthia E: 1 min to go 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: Here we go! 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :30 Phoenix: GM All 8:30 Cynthia E: Nice distance here above the MC - let's see if it is sustainable. 8:30 Cynthia E: GM Phoenix ;) 8:31 Cynthia E: Monitor the extent of directional confidence here. 8:32 Cynthia E: That is something we are ALWAYS evaluating immediately off the opening bell. 8:32 Cynthia E: Is there a directional HOLD on one side of the DO, or is there immediate rotation back and forth over the DO. 8:33 Cynthia E: The rotation tells us that participants don't have a strong sense of direction, that they have low confidence. 8:33 Mark_C: GM All 8:34 Cynthia E: GM Mark 8:37 Cynthia E: Each bar close is holding above DO thus far. 5

6 8:37 Cynthia E: Reaching for the test at the Mini - GREEN line 8:37 Cynthia E: New Mini - RED line now = :41 Cynthia E: Rejection on first Mini-GREEN test 8:44 Cynthia E: Retesting DO for support now 8:44 Cynthia E: We are 'unchanged' on fair value. 8:45 Cynthia E: All action this morning is centered within the middle of yesterday's distribution, and the B trade is repairing jagged right edge from yesterday. 8:46 Cynthia E: Here is the test now at the Mini-RED following the rejection on the GREEN. 8:47 Cynthia E: Which was also confirmation of CENTER resistance on the bull flag range. 8:48 Cynthia E: 1 tick close 8:49 Cynthia E: RED adjusted to :50 Cynthia E: There is the close below, and the bounce back to retest the LIS for resistance. 8:50 MikeS: BOOM 8:50 Cynthia E: Out :50 Cynthia E: Missed me by 1 tick 8:51 tsurf: great work Mike and Cyn 8:51 Cynthia E: Nice job Mike! Well done! Super week for you thus far!! 8:51 MB: nice job Mike and cyn 8:51 MikeS: Thanks 8:51 MB: nice job Mike and cyn 8:51 MikeS: Thanks 8:52 MikeS: Thanks MB 8:52 Cynthia E: Thanks all 8:57 Andy: time change 3m 8:58 Cynthia E: Mini - RED now down at :58 Cynthia E: Lower high below Mini - GREEN 9:01 Cynthia E: Remember that our prior swing low on 10/11 was :02 Cynthia E: Look below B low and fail 9:03 MB: no close below 9:03 Cynthia E: Correct 9:03 MB: at least not for me 9:04 Cynthia E: And no adjustment - RED still at exactly :07 Cynthia E: Don't get hammered here!! WAIT for the close below! 9:07 Cynthia E: Multiple opportunities for TRAPS here! 9:08 Cynthia E: NO JTG syndrome! :) 9:08 MikeS: My RL adjusted to :08 MikeS: Both 3600 & :08 Cynthia E: BIG extension here 9:08 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE below 9:09 Cynthia E: No entry for me there. 9:09 Andy: did someone say trap? 9:09 MikeS: -4 for me 9:09 Cynthia E: Was waiting on the bounce back for better trade location and it immediately broke the LIS with momentum. 9:10 Cynthia E: No worries Mike - you'll get it back. 9:10 Cynthia E: That's what emergency stops are for! 9:10 MikeS: :) 9:11 Andy: got behind early yday, ended day up 1.5, being careful today or so I thought, up trades, SOH 9:12 Cynthia E: SOH for me so far today! 9:12 Cynthia E: Sorry - no - we had the one earlier trade for +1.00, geese, need more coffee here this morning! LOL 9:13 tsurf: lol 9:13 Cynthia E: I was honestly thinking that was yesterday! haha - I'm losing time! 9:13 Saffa: did you say coffee...good shout lol 9:14 You have a PM from Mark_C 9:14 Cynthia E: Yes indeed Saffa - like a whole pot! :) lol 9:14 Andy: AAPL eps after close today, 2 way trade so far, tough for trend players 6

7 9:14 tsurf: I know that feeling 9:15 Cynthia E: Agree Andy! 9:15 Cynthia E: As mentioned pre-market - all trade inside the bull flag so far! 9:16 Cynthia E: Keeps opportunity tight and limited! 9:16 Cynthia E: This is what we expected based on pre-market analysis. 9:16 tsurf: By the way, will be on vacation next couple of weeks, so wishing great trades to all! 9:16 Saffa: nice surf, have a great time! 9:16 Cynthia E: Precisely why we said it was the PRIMARY acknowledgement and recognition needed to setup our expectations for the day! 9:16 Cynthia E: Wonderful Tsurf! Enjoy!! 9:17 MikeS: Have a super vacation surf 9:17 tsurf: That's the plan for sure! 9:17 MB: well deserved surf! 9:17 tsurf: Will do Mike, Hawaii so should not be hard 9:17 MikeS: Awesome! 9:17 tsurf: thx MB ;-) 9:18 JerryH: Enjoy tsurf 9:18 Cynthia E: Sounds AWESOME Tsurf!! Have a blast --> Fun in the Sun! 9:18 tsurf: I'll catch a wave for you guys :-) 9:19 MB: nice! 9:19 Cynthia E: Sounds perfect! 9:20 Saffa: fwiw yesterday small downward pitchfork (midline) being respected at this time swing high/ connect 2708low / back to YH 9:22 Saffa: testing HW 9:23 Cynthia E: Tsurf - I think today's market is preparing you for a great vacation! Beach volleyball anyone? LOL 9:24 Saffa: fun 9:24 tsurf: really 9:24 Saffa: lower volume today 9:24 tsurf: was just looking at flatish CL 9:24 Cynthia E: Very true Saffa! 9:25 tsurf: everyone waiting for Apple results and then the election 9:25 Saffa: nfp tomorrow 9:25 Saffa: might be trend day.. 9:25 Cynthia E: So as we think about analyzing the bigger picture here and today's first test of the October close, the key criteria here is that with lower volume and a rotational day, we have confirmation that we are NOT seeing a strong influx of OTF adding to current longs. 9:26 tsurf: great point 9:26 Cynthia E: If we see several days of this, then odds start to favor trading into the October excess low, and back toward ! 9:27 Andy: time change 3m, see how D opens- test the edges or open near HW 9:27 Saffa: zig zag indecision 9:28 Cynthia E: The range is getting tighter on each rotation 9:29 Cynthia E: really makes an impression today. 9:31 tsurf: bit of a mess 9:33 Cynthia E: There is our CLOSE above :33 Saffa: too far away on my bars 9:34 Cynthia E: Took there to finish out the :34 Saffa: wow nice 9:34 Mark_C: Good Job 9:34 Cynthia E: Just took the immediate walk rather than waiting for the 3 due to today's rotational, small opportunity nature! 9:34 MikeS: Good job Cyn 9:34 Cynthia E: So as SOON as I entered - I moved my TARGET to +2 9:35 Cynthia E: And it filled on that pop 9:35 MB: wtg cyn 9:35 Cynthia E: Thanks all ;) 7

8 9:35 JerryH: nice Cyn 9:36 Cynthia E: We are still INSIDE the bull flag which is the range from 2737 to 2706, so as stated early this morning - - > ALL trades inside the range should be assumed to be SMALL target trades! 9:36 Andy: good entry off 3 wide weak high, good bull % 9:37 Cynthia E: Remember a lot of our outcomes are based on whether or not we create the proper EXPECTATIONS. 9:37 Cynthia E: If our expectations are out of line, then we tend to not make the best trading decisions. 9:37 Saffa: very true! 9:37 Cynthia E: So there was the extension on up to +3.00, but I'm perfectly satisfied with the outcome at +2 because IT was the HIGHER ODDS trade! 9:45 Saffa: I missed the polarity test that lined up with the HW test at 16'ish prior to breakout 9:45 Saffa: would you call that a polarity test Cyn? 9:45 Cynthia E: At 16? No, not really. 9:46 Cynthia E: There wasn't a swing HIGH there that was retested as new support. 9:46 Saffa: gotcha 9:47 Cynthia E: Like right now Saffa! 9:47 Saffa: yip 9:47 Cynthia E: There is clearly a line of HIGHS around 2726/25 that was just retested as support. 9:47 Saffa: :) 9:47 Cynthia E: That's what you are looking for when you are assessing polarity 9:48 MikeS: I have polarity at :48 Cynthia E: You have to include ALL the highs Mike. 9:48 MikeS: Understand. That was the breakout level that started the extension. 9:49 Cynthia E: The ONH swing high at , the opening swing high at , and the one around 9:12 CST at :49 Cynthia E: Remember levels are always ZONES, not one specific level! 9:49 MikeS: OK 9:49 Cynthia E: That's why I said around 26/25 9:50 Cynthia E: We use the idea or concept of ZONES, because that helps us account for volatility. 9:50 Cynthia E: We can't assume that the market will HOLD S/R levels to the tick (although often they do), by allowing for variance within the developed RANGE, you allow for the natural imperfection of price and price tests! 9:53 Saffa: +1 there 9:55 Cynthia E: Nice job Saffa! 9:56 MB: gj saffa 9:56 tsurf: alright Saffa :-) 9:56 MikeS: Good job Saffa 9:58 Saffa: thx 9:58 Saffa: def more art than skill imho, takes time to get the feel for your instrument, sometime I get it right sometime I dont 9:59 Saffa: with time it will come good I'm sure 9:59 Saffa: reminds me of the bamboo farmer... 10:00 Saffa: only after caring & nursing its crop for 5 years it finally start to see the crop grow 10:05 tsurf: I read that story and thought the same thing Saffa, great story! 10:05 Saffa: inspirational imho 10:05 Mark_C: See you all next week - take care & good trading 10:05 Saffa: bye Mark 10:06 tsurf: You too Mark 10:06 Cynthia E: Have a great day Mark! 10:06 MikeS: Take care Mark 10:06 JerryH: bye mark 10:15 traderken: got in just before 10 cst. Paper no fill in took :15 Cynthia E: New Mini - GREEN at :19 Cynthia E: Be careful on those small rotations there Ken. I would not have classified the swing high at at 9.37 CST as a 'new green line' 10:19 Cynthia E: Even though we had the pull back and retest at 2726, the range of that valley was so shallow, that I simply would have passed on any breakout at :20 traderken: my bad kind of chased it! 8

9 10:20 Cynthia E: Now the swing high at is marginally better due to the TIME of this consolidation, but still with the PRIMARY green and bull flag high above at 2737, I would be much more cautious here. 10:21 Cynthia E: No worries Ken - Just sharing thoughts to help you look for more significant or larger size swings for the trade setups! ;) 10:21 Cynthia E: It's that time! Let's summarize! 10:21 traderken: thinking same :23 Cynthia E: Right! ;) 10:23 Andy: +2 10:23 Cynthia E: 10:23 Cynthia E: GREAT job Andy! Nicely done! 10:23 Cynthia E: Here is the final :23 tsurf: wtg Andy! 10:23 Cynthia E: Very choppy day here. All consolidation within our pre-market BULL FLAG we identified. 10:24 Cynthia E: At the open we developed a new higher low for our MINI - RED around :24 Cynthia E: That established the first SHORT opportunity, on the bounce back for re-entry. 10:24 Cynthia E: Then the next move down was really dicey. 10:25 Cynthia E: held support strong for many bars until that big bar brake. 10:25 MikeS: Good job Andy 10:25 Cynthia E: We didn't want to chase there, and on the bounce back, price rallied right back through the LIS preventing any additional short there. 10:25 Andy: poor high wanted to repair, thx 10:25 Cynthia E: After a few more rotations, we finally got the breakout at which triggered the LONG opportunity. 10:26 Cynthia E: And now Andy just caught the final breakout higher. 10:26 Cynthia E: Any comments or questions today? These rotational days can be some of the toughest to maneuver. 9

10 10:26 Cynthia E: CL is flat, and we just have to have a mental/emotional stance of NEUTRAL so that our expectations are reasonable! 10:27 Andy: thx Cyn 10:27 Saffa: thx Cyn 10:28 Cynthia E: 10:28 Cynthia E: Thanks guys! 10:28 Cynthia E: Here is the final histo. 10:28 MB: thanks cyn see you tomorrow 10:28 JerryH: Thx Cyn 10:28 Cynthia E: An 'inside day' so far, but the most important factor is that price HELD above October's monthly close or the YC/YL! 10

11 10:28 Cynthia E: That is a start in the right direction for a bullish rebound. 10:29 Cynthia E: And on the DAILY, we are negating the shooting star and removing the excess high! 10:29 Cynthia E: Thank MB and Jerry! 10:29 Cynthia E: Everyone have a fantastic day! We'll finish out the week with ROCKIN' FRIDAY tomorrow! 10:29 Cynthia E: Bye! :) 10:29 MikeS: Thanks Cyn. Connect tomorrow for Rockin' Friday. End of Chat Roll for Monday, November 01,