Strength: a river cuts through rock not because of its power, but its persistence. ~ Jim Watkins

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Tuesday, January 22, 2019: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Tuesday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** Strength: a river cuts through rock not because of its power, but its persistence. ~ Jim Watkins 5:37 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:10 JerryH: GM All 7:40 chicky527: gm all 7:56 Deni: gm traders 8:00 tsurf: GM all 8:00 MikeS: Happy Tuesday morning! 8:01 Jenna: gm all 8:02 MB: GM team 8:05 CRH: Good morning. 8:05 Cynthia E: GOOD Morning Team! 8:06 Cynthia E: Welcome back - I hope everyone enjoyed the long weekend, and that you are set and ready for another GREAT week in the market! 8:07 Cynthia E: Remember that Thursday was a bullish outside day setting expectations for 'exceptional' bullish follow through and performance, and that while Friday did trade higher, we could not classify it as an exceptional move just yet. 8:07 Cynthia E: This morning our ONH is below Friday's POC, and price is set to open in Friday's LOWER range. 8:07 Cynthia E: Let's get our charts and take a look. 8:09 Cynthia E: 1

2 8:09 Cynthia E: Here is the overnight histogram. 8:09 Cynthia E: Inventory is 100% short relative to Friday's close, and we are set to open back in the pole of Friday's P shape day. 8:10 Cynthia E: So as we get started this morning, we'll look for any short squeeze inventory adjustment, and we'll watch to see if the L period or (round of the P) area low acts as resistance. 8:10 Cynthia E: If so, then more downside pressure will develop against ST/DTF 'net longs'. 2

3 8:11 Cynthia E: If we rally back inside the round of the P, then the target is the retest of the POC and the YH. 8:11 Cynthia E: If we do get downside pressure, then we are likely to retest the YL for a downside breakout, and our bullish outside day could trigger an 'even stronger reversal' move. 8:12 Cynthia E: 8:13 Cynthia E: On 14400, Friday's late day pull back into the close combined with overnight activity shows that we are in a strong retracement of the rally off and :14 Cynthia E: So we'll watch to see if the retracement ends and we resume the upward drive, or if we start to gain momentum in the possible reversal. 8:14 Cynthia E: 3

4 8:15 Cynthia E: As usual, on 3600, we get to see more detail of that retracement. 8:15 Cynthia E: We can see the two primary swing highs, along with the wiggles that make up the downward retracement move. 8:15 Cynthia E: Let's take a look at where our starting levels will be this morning. 8:17 Cynthia E: 4

5 8:18 Cynthia E: Here are the starting levels. 8:18 Cynthia E: On the top side we have the PRIMARY green lines defined by the swing highs at the YH at and :19 Cynthia E: We have a Mini - GREEN at the overnight swing at as CL continues to catch up. 8:19 Cynthia E: On the bottom side, our RED line is also based on the swing at the YL at :21 Cynthia E: 5

6 8:21 Cynthia E: To understand the RED line better. 8:21 Cynthia E: We have to look back to :21 Cynthia E: You can see that we've had 3 strong swing LOWS. 8:22 Cynthia E: And from this view you can also see that we really haven't yet bounced strong enough in CURRENT action to generate a new clearly defined swing low. 8:22 Cynthia E: So we need to continue to operate off the one from Friday's B/C period or YL swing low until a better more current one is confirmed. 8:22 Cynthia E: Okay! Take the remaining few minutes to review and get set and ready to go. 8:28 Cynthia E: 2 mins to go 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: Here we go 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :32 Cynthia E: Early indecision and low confidence - trading back and forth around DO 8:38 MB: cyn on my 3600and 1440 I have a big blue candle that was built at 1600 on Friday that topped out at and it's missing from both yours.?? 8:39 Cynthia E: Yeah - I don't have that for sure 8:39 MikeS: It's the 4:30 pm candle 8:40 Cynthia E: What time zone Mike? 8:40 MikeS: ETE 8:40 MikeS: ET 8:41 Cynthia E: So right at the CLOSE on Friday? 8:41 MB: yes 8:41 MikeS: The candle after the close. 8:42 Cynthia E: The first bar I have in the overnight is a strong topping tail doji - but it's high is :42 Cynthia E: On my :43 MB: if you look on a 15 m you will see it 8:44 Cynthia E: I don't have that even on my 15 min from Friday's close 8:44 MikeS: Just ed to you the & 3600 setup. On 3600 have swig high at

7 8:44 MB: must be your settings for mkt close or something 8:44 Cynthia E: Could be MB 8:45 MB: strange we've never noticed but usually not that big of move in that little time 8:46 Cynthia E: Thanks for the Mike - I definitely don't have those. 8:46 MikeS: My chart settings for pit session are 9:30:00 to 16:14:59 and for evening session are 16:15:00 to 9:29:59. 8:46 Cynthia E: My first bars into the overnight look like the match your bars that follow those blue bars on both the 3600 and :46 Cynthia E: Same as mine Mike on the time settings 8:46 MikeS: So the activity we are referring are between 16:15 to 16:30 ET 8:48 Cynthia E: First test of RED held support. 8:50 Cynthia E: There is the CLOSE below 8:50 Cynthia E: YL right here as well with gap to :51 Cynthia E: Monitor for a successful breakout, not a look below and fail 8:52 Deni: +2 8:52 MikeS: Stepped out :52 Cynthia E: Great job Deni 8:53 MikeS: Good job Deni 8:53 MB: wtg deni 8:53 MB: gj Mike 8:53 JerryH: nice going team 8:53 Cynthia E: In here at and monitoring 8:53 Cynthia E: Looking for the extension through the gap and below YL 8:54 tsurf: nice one Deni 8:54 tsurf: alright Mike 8:55 Cynthia E: Stepped out :55 MikeS: Thanks tsurf - on the board 8:55 tsurf: yep 8:55 MikeS: Good mgmt Cyn 8:55 Cynthia E: Thanks 8:56 MikeS: Stepped out because of YL. Want to see a more solid b/o so took walk. 9:01 Cynthia E: Same Mike - hesitation there 9:03 JoJo: in 9:03 Cynthia E: Just monitoring carefully here 9:04 Cynthia E: Not much of a cycle on that rotation. 9:04 Cynthia E: If there is a new level - it would be for the YL downside breakout move. 9:06 tsurf: +2 9:06 Cynthia E: There is the strong close back below YL 9:06 Cynthia E: Nice job Tsurf 9:06 JoJo: +4 9:06 MikeS: Good job tsurf 9:06 tsurf: wtg JoJo, well done 9:06 Cynthia E: WELL Done Jojo! Great job 9:06 MikeS: Great job JoJo 9:06 MB: nice jojo and surf 9:06 MB: had to be in top of that one 9:07 JoJo: you too Tsurf 9:07 JoJo: in single prints 9:07 Cynthia E: BOOM! at :07 DRich: good job Jojo 9:07 MikeS: Good job Cyn 9:07 JoJo: ^Cyn 9:07 MB: nice cyn 9:09 DRich: wtg Cyn 9:09 Cynthia E: 7

8 9:09 Cynthia E: Thanks guys 9:09 Cynthia E: Here is a review of the chart for new members. 9:10 Cynthia E: Initially we opened with a consolidation level between Friday's YL and the area 9:10 Cynthia E: Opening action had indecision in that range. 9:10 Cynthia E: Ultimately price drifted lower. 9:10 Cynthia E: On the initial test of the breakout, YL held support, and price bounced back up. 9:11 Cynthia E: Typically we would want to see a MUCH larger cycle or rotation; however, given that we were at a DAILY LOW - the 2nd downside breakout was also a short by histogram rules. 9:11 Cynthia E: The combination of signals strengthened the odds in the move. 9:11 Cynthia E: Does anyone have comments or questions here? 9:13 Cynthia E: Jojo - don't forget your SMILE :) 9:14 JoJo: sorry 9:14 Cynthia E: No worries - just looks good on ya! 9:14 JoJo: smiley face 9:16 Andy: gm lots of snow clean up 9:16 Cynthia E: GM Andy - glad you made it in 9:16 tsurf: dug your way into the room 9:16 tsurf: :-) 8

9 9:17 Cynthia E: haha 9:18 Cynthia E: Mini - GREEN at :18 Andy: :) 9:19 Cynthia E: New RED forming at :19 Cynthia E: Again as a reminder to NEW members - all of our RED / GREEN levels are set by candle BODIES not the exact highs and lows of the wicks of each bar. 9:21 Cynthia E: So far today's LOWS are testing support in the top range of the DAILY Bullish OUTSIDE Day bar from Thursday. 9:22 Cynthia E: Watching here on the histogram chart to see if the intraday 1 TF Down pattern continues or if the C period low is developed into bullish EXCESS for a rebound toward the upside. 9:27 Andy: time change 3m 9:27 JoJo: possible classic 9:27 JoJo: and hw 9:36 Cynthia E: Yes Jojo - indicators lining up with CL nicely 9:37 DRich: What is a classic? 9:38 DRich: Is there an entry right where it crosses the CL? 9:39 MikeS: mini-gl at :40 Cynthia E: A Classic is a Continuation Long or Short with 'perfect' symmetry. 9:41 Cynthia E: Price tests resistance on CL, while the ST STO makes an "A" pattern, and the ERG tests resistance at zero. 9:41 DRich: Where stochastics and ergs cross? 9:41 DRich: Ok, I remember. Didn't remember it was called "classic". thx 9:41 Cynthia E: No - not where there cross. 9:42 Cynthia E: Right! There ya go - just a plan CONTINUATION - it just forms with 'perfect' or 'classic' symmetry on the chart. 9:42 DRich: Sorry, where ERG crosses zero. 9:42 DRich: So the stochastics form that "taught bowstring" pattern 9:43 Cynthia E: And on a Classic Short - ERG should reject at zero and head back down 9:43 DRich: ok 9:43 Cynthia E: Right - exactly 9:43 DRich: thx 9:43 Cynthia E: You bet 9:44 Cynthia E: GREEN here still = :44 Cynthia E: RED still = :45 Cynthia E: So, we'll either get another Continuation Short or we'll start to reverse and trigger the CL Break Long. 9:45 Cynthia E: CL has maintained nice resistance throughout the day thus far. 9:57 Andy: time change 3m 9:58 Cynthia E: Still no change! 9:59 Cynthia E: Consolidation within our lower range between and :59 Cynthia E: This is one of those scenarios where having a solid idea of where NOT to trade or where to SOH (sit on hands) comes in handy. 9:59 Cynthia E: It is as important to know when the market is NOT presenting an opportunity as it is to know when it IS presenting one. 9:59 Cynthia E: Alright! 9:59 Cynthia E: It's about that time - let's do final summary charts and wrap up. 10:00 JerryH: Thx Cyn 10:00 Cynthia E: Heads up 10:00 Cynthia E: Testing RED as we go to summary charts 10:02 Cynthia E: 9

10 10:02 Cynthia E: Here is the final :03 Cynthia E: Price started out bearish with activity BELOW CL - that confirmed right off the open that we are 'shopping for shorts' 10:03 Cynthia E: From there - we had the initial breakout below YL that wasn't very strong. 10:03 Cynthia E: It triggered a few stop orders there. 10:03 Cynthia E: Then we got a nice successful breakout below YL on the 2nd move. 10:03 Cynthia E: That is a common occurrence. 10:04 Cynthia E: The FIRST move or test is very OFTEN to take out stops, and the 2nd move (if it happens) is more likely to carry 'real' or substantial volume. 10:04 Cynthia E: From there we have just consolidated within the new lower range between and :04 Cynthia E: Just notice here how the LEVELS shift as price activity moves. 10:05 Cynthia E: The opening GREEN was in the overnight swing highs, then as we created a LOWER high in the day session - the GREEN shifted DOWN to that level. 10:05 Cynthia E: And so forth. 10:05 Cynthia E: Now the two possible trades are the Continuation Short on a CLOSE below :05 Cynthia E: Or a CL Break Long on the CLOSE above :05 Cynthia E: And once a breakout has occurred the breakout level immediately become the LIS or line in the sand for your STOP LOSS. 10:06 Cynthia E: We do not put in HARD stops at these levels because it is too close to current market action. 10:07 Cynthia E: But we know if price moves right back through the breakout level that the trade is not ready for follow through (so that is our cue to step out with a managed loss) 10:08 Cynthia E: 10

11 10:08 Cynthia E: Here is the final histo 10:09 MB: thanks cyn, see you tomorrow 10:09 Cynthia E: We completely ignore the Monday half-day data as if it doesn't exist. 10:09 Cynthia E: Volume is so low on these sessions that it is meaningless info. 10:09 Cynthia E: From there our day today is based on FRIDAY's trade. 10:09 Cynthia E: Thus far today, price has displayed resistance at Friday's POC (today's HOD is well below Friday's POC). 10:09 Cynthia E: And today's consolidation is TESTING support in Thursday's bullish outside day! 10:10 Cynthia E: Okay! 10:10 Cynthia E: That's a wrap! 11

12 10:10 Cynthia E: Excellent patience today team. 10:10 MikeS: Thanks Cyn 10:10 tsurf: Thanks Cyn 10:10 DRich: thx Cyn! 10:10 Cynthia E: Volume was relatively low, and there wasn't a lot of action to trade. 10:10 Cynthia E: Thanks guys! 10:11 Andy: thx Cyn 10:11 Cynthia E: Everyone have a wonderful afternoon, and I'll see you back here tomorrow! 10:11 Cynthia E: Bye! 10:27 Andy: time change 3m 10:38 MikeS: All take care. Connect in the morning 10:38 tsurf: tomorrow Mike End of Chat Roll for Tuesday, January 22,