One who gains strength by overcoming obstacles possesses the only strength which can overcome adversity! ~Unknown

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Tuesday, July 31, 2018: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Tuesday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** One who gains strength by overcoming obstacles possesses the only strength which can overcome adversity! ~Unknown 5:21 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:46 Deni: good morning all 7:48 Mehnaz: Good Morning guys 7:49 chicky527: gm all 7:52 Saffa: good morning 7:56 Andy: gm 7:57 JerryH: GM All 7:58 tsurf: Good morning all 7:58 MikeS: Good morning! 8:02 rstrader: gm 8:03 MB: GM traders 8:04 CRH: Good morning 8:08 Cynthia E: Good Morning Team! 8:08 Cynthia E: First on the agenda! 8:08 Cynthia E: The Morning Update report! 8:08 Cynthia E: Mike let me know there was access issues. 8:09 Cynthia E: We had a storm here last night, and when I plugged back in to upload the report, the internet speed was running so slow, it probably just created errors in the upload. 8:09 Cynthia E: I have reloaded the report to the site, and I have checked it. It should be available now. Apologies for the inconvenience! :) 8:10 Cynthia E: Now on to pre-market analysis! :) 8:11 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:11 Cynthia E: Alright! Here is the overnight histogram! 8:12 Cynthia E: Overnight inventory is 100% long, but what is the FIRST thing you notice here? 8:12 Cynthia E: ALL of the overnight inventory is contained within the FAT part of yesterday's consolidation or distribution. 8:12 Cynthia E: So once again, we are opening here with NO CHANGE in the perception or opinion of the LOCATION of 'fair value'! 8:13 Cynthia E: So we're going to need to patient this morning and continue to look for CHANGE, because it hasn't happened YET! 8:13 Cynthia E: With overnight inventory 100% long, our first task will be to monitor for any long liquidation squeeze to adjust the overnight inventory. 8:14 Cynthia E: On that move, we'll monitor whether the POC and/or YL holds support to trigger SWING BUYING in the larger time frame (DAILY time frame). 8:15 Cynthia E: Basically - the last 2 days have adjusted 'net long' inventory back to our ascending TREND line on the DAILY, and we are just above the last swing low at So we are monitoring to see if BUYERS step in again at the trend line to maintain the series of HIGHER LOWS, or whether this time the retracement becomes more aggressive and breaks back toward a retest of

3 8:15 Cynthia E: Let's look at 3600! 8:16 Cynthia E: 8:16 Cynthia E: Here is :17 Cynthia E: So we see the DOWNTREND drive from yesterday's liquidation, and if we look down at the LT STO and ERG we see that we've been in a retracement phase. 8:17 Cynthia E: But I'm hoping that the CHANNEL here jumps out at you without having it marked! 8:17 Cynthia E: It's just what we circled on the histogram a moment ago... that the overnight range is all INSIDE yesterday's distribution... so let's highlight that now! 8:19 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:19 Cynthia E: Now your perception of where we are in TIME and SPACE should be a little different. 8:20 Cynthia E: Let me remind you here of one of Daulton's FAVORITE phrases, and one if you remember that Irish lived by for his RTM strategy! 8:20 Cynthia E: "Traders will keep doing what works until it doesn't anymore!" 8:20 Cynthia E: What that means is identified resistance IS resistance until it isn't anymore, and identified support IS support until it isn't anymore. 8:21 Cynthia E: So when you see these times where a HIGH has been created and a LOW has been established, and price is showing a DECISION POINT or uncertainty (rotation) within that range, then that is the KEY focus UNTIL that range changes! 8:22 Cynthia E: When you are INSIDE a range --> think SMALL opportunities! 8:22 Cynthia E: Or stated another way... 8:22 Cynthia E: When you are INSIDE a range --> think HIGHER RISK trades! 8:23 Cynthia E: So let's now define our levels from this! 8:25 Crosseyed: NEWS - Gov't may cut capital gains 8:25 Crosseyed: Index buying price to inflation 8:25 Cynthia E: Thx Crosseyed! 8:25 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:25 Cynthia E: So there is our CHANGE just before we got the snapshot. 8:26 Cynthia E: But before we set it up again. 8:26 Crosseyed: Pres may be able to do with exec order to Treasury 8:26 Cynthia E: Let's look at this chart above and phrase it a little different than normal. 8:26 Cynthia E: The RED arrow established resistance! 8:26 Cynthia E: The GREEN arrow established support. 8:26 Cynthia E: When we can see that the RED circle CONFIRMED the area as resistance. 8:26 Cynthia E: And the GREEN circle CONFIRMED the area as support. 8:27 Cynthia E: In BOTH cases there was NOT enough point distance there to label a NEW red or green line level. 8:27 Cynthia E: They were close enough to the original levels, that we simply consider them as 1 level. 8:27 Cynthia E: Since the last test off the LOW - we have had a couple of higher lows, and that is how we located the MINI - RED line to TARGET the primary low at :28 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 5

6 8:28 Cynthia E: Now with 1 min to go! 8:28 Cynthia E: We have the BREAKOUT. 8:28 Cynthia E: That was a LONG trade trigger, and it offered our :29 Cynthia E: So NOW - as the bell rings - we're looking to see if the GREEN at 2811 holds as NEW support, or if we re-enter the indecision or BALANCE range to target 2800 again! 8:29 Cynthia E: 30 seconds 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: And we're off! 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :30 Cynthia E: Market memory - right back to again! 8:30 Cynthia E: GREEN line now :33 JerryH: GM All 8:33 Cynthia E: GM Jerry 8:34 JoJo: volume good this morning 8:34 JoJo: gm Jerry 8:34 MikeS: Cyn, have question above monthly. If today closes above June high but below 6-month balance high, the month closes with mixed results- correct? Bullish in that June high held support. Bearish in that price failed to achieve breakout at the 6-month balance high. 6

7 8:35 Cynthia E: Correct Mike! We do not have confirmation of the 6-mo balance breakout until we have a month that CLOSES outside the February range one direction or the other. 8:36 MikeS: Thanks 8:36 Cynthia E: So yes within the balance we would be 1 TF UP based on the Apr/May/June/July lows, with a good close above the June high, but failure on the balance breakout if your scenario plays out. 8:36 MikeS: So does not necessarily mean the look above & fail target will be the focus. 8:36 Cynthia E: 2811 held support on first test - but seeing responsive selling again around :37 Cynthia E: That would still be in play Mike - it would be a look above and fail on the 6-mo balance! 8:37 Cynthia E: Does everyone see how our RANGE has just shifted up for now. 8:38 MikeS: Understand will be in play but bullish in that June high held support. 8:38 tsurf: yep 8:38 Cynthia E: We broke above 2811 established now we are rotating inside THAT range. 8:38 MikeS: yes 8:38 Cynthia E: But destination target relative to the 6-mo failure WOULD be despite the June high hold. 8:39 MikeS: Understand 8:44 Cynthia E: 8:44 Cynthia E: Reference the :45 Cynthia E: The breakout this morning above the 2800 / 2811 band put us into the BALANCE from Friday's late day consolidation that CONFIRMED resistance on the open YESTERDAY! 8:45 Cynthia E: So that is where we are struggling now! Right back at the 2818 / 2820 level. 8:46 Cynthia E: This concept team is the MOST difficult challenge day traders face at ANY time! 7

8 8:46 Cynthia E: A directional TREND favors "TREND" style trading. 8:47 Cynthia E: A channel consolidation favors "RTM" style trading. 8:47 Cynthia E: But being fluid enough to NOTICE when one vs. the other is in play is the hardest part. 8:48 Cynthia E: Trend traders either DON'T notice that the market is in a CHANNEL, or they get impatient and try to either force trades inside the range, or they anticipate the 'big breakout' and jump the gun before the market is actually ready to exit the range. 8:50 Cynthia E: The market has FAILED so far to breakout on the TOP resistance at 18 / 20, so now we are rotating back down to RETEST 2811 again. 8:50 Cynthia E: ALL market action is a series of TESTS for support and resistance. 8:51 Cynthia E: The level either BREAKS and you get continuation, or it HOLDS, and the NEXT logical test becomes the other side of the balance BECAUSE the market couldn't BREAK it on the first side it tested. 8:52 Cynthia E: So now we've arrived at the retest of 'the other side' at :52 Cynthia E: After failing at 2818/2820 8:53 JoJo: pol test 8:53 Cynthia E: And possible CLASSIC Long! 8:54 Cynthia E: Potential "perfect" bounce off CL, and ERG off zero line, with a potential perfect "V" in the ST STO. 8:56 Cynthia E: Quick rejection on the bounce at DO 8:57 Andy: time change 3m 8:57 JoJo: sure is 9:02 Cynthia E: CL has had an opportunity to 'catch up' here from the range between itself and price at the opening bell, so once we bounce here our RED line will move UP to 2811 as the new swing low. 9:05 Cynthia E: RED now = to TARGET :05 Cynthia E: So we could get a Continuation Long above , or a CL Break Short below :11 tsurf: gonna have to take off in a few mins for an appointment, Good trading to all today and see ya in the morning :- ) 9:11 Cynthia E: Have a good one Tsurf! Enjoy your day! 9:11 MikeS: Have a good one tsurf! 9:11 Deni: bye tsurf 9:11 Saffa: bye surf 9:11 JoJo: bye tsurf 9:11 Mehnaz: Good day tsurf 9:11 tsurf: :-) 9:12 Cynthia E: Remember in the Morning Update - we said to watch the POC! 9:12 Cynthia E: We've been in a ST/DTF dynamic shift. 9:12 Cynthia E: Remember our first heads up warning that dynamic shift is STARTING when we are 'net long' is the loss of the POC as support. 9:13 Cynthia E: So as the liquidation comes to an end, IF the POC holds support, then we know that VALUE is starting to build higher again. 9:13 Cynthia E: So if we look at then in relation to our 'easy' assessment, then we have support at CL, but we haven't quite extended up from 2813 to 2819 for the 'easy' +6 just yet. 9:14 Cynthia E: So that tells us that continued failure at 2819 is LIKELY to trigger more liquidations. 9:16 Cynthia E: Heads up! Lower high --> retesting RED line at :17 Cynthia E: And this is where it starts to get dicey! 9:17 JoJo: would like to go over the "easy" assessment sometime on the sorry if silly question 9:17 Cynthia E: We now have a MINI - GREEN at 2816, but we are STILL INSIDE our / 2811 consolidation. 9:17 Cynthia E: It is the lesson we did on July 18th in chat Jojo 9:18 JoJo: thanks will go over 9:18 Cynthia E: You bet! 9:18 Cynthia E: Here is the CLOSE below :19 JoJo: S :19 Cynthia E: So now we have an upside breakout failure and re-entry into the prior opening range. 9:19 Cynthia E: Here is the bounce back for the 'ideal' entry closer to :21 MB: :21 MikeS: :22 Cynthia E: Took there 9:22 Cynthia E: Nice work MB and Mike! Well done! 8

9 9:22 MB: gj 9:22 MikeS: Thanks. God job MB & Cyn 9:22 MikeS: *Good 9:23 JoJo: :24 Mehnaz: 1.5 9:24 Cynthia E: Great job Jojo and Mehnaz 9:24 MikeS: Good job JoJo & Mehnaz 9:24 MB: nice work fellas 9:25 Saffa: wtg all 9:25 JoJo: gj all 9:25 Cynthia E: We moved from the 2818/2811 balance to the 2811/2800 balance - so within balance we would still target SMALL opportunities. Excellent job everyone! 9:27 Andy: time change 3m 9:29 Cynthia E: LIS still holding here 9:30 Cynthia E: A breakout below is NOT a new short entry. 9:30 Cynthia E: It would just be the continued extension of the 2811 breakout 9:37 Cynthia E: 9:37 Cynthia E: Now we have re-entry again back into our UPPER consolidation range. 9:38 Cynthia E: So we have to see if BULLS have enough strength to end this morning's retracement or series of LOWER HIGHS. 9:38 Cynthia E: And NOW with the upward bounce we do have a NEW Red line at :39 Cynthia E: We cannot count a level as a swing LOW until price bounces or until enough time has passed to consider it a new level. 9:39 Cynthia E: In other words support and/or resistance are established EITHER by POINT RANGE or by TIME! 9:39 MikeS: Do you mean RL at 08.75? 9:40 Cynthia E: Yes sorry :40 MikeS: No problem 9

10 9:40 Cynthia E: typo twice there :) 9:40 MikeS: :) 9:45 Cynthia E: Mini - GREEN line here now at :46 Cynthia E: Pull back retested support AGAIN at :46 JoJo: I like these... 9:46 JoJo: I have 13 for GL 9:46 MikeS: Me too 9:47 Cynthia E: Same guys! CL was in the way a bit ;) 9:47 JoJo: LOL 9:48 Andy: good trading, have to go 9:48 Cynthia E: Have a great day Andy! 9:48 MikeS: Take care Andy! 9:55 MB: gonna head out too, thanks cyn and see you tomorrow, good luck team! 9:55 MikeS: Take care MB! 9:55 Cynthia E: Have a good one MB! Great trading today - nice 'walk' and excellent patience. 9:55 JoJo: bye MB 9:55 MB: thanks 9:56 JoJo: Cyn..will you be taking this? 9:57 JoJo: since you have pts in bag..but setup is there.. 9:57 Cynthia E: Would like to - have to head out on time this morning though - we'll see whether or not it signals fairly quickly. 9:58 JoJo: no trade 9:58 Mehnaz: yep 9:58 Cynthia E: Correct - looked above and closed back within 9:58 JoJo: this one might do it 9:59 JoJo: guess im heading out on time as well.. 9:59 JoJo: have good day all thanks Cyn 9:59 Cynthia E: Have a good one Jojo! 9:59 Cynthia E: That's a wrap! 9:59 Cynthia E: Let me post final charts here! 9:59 Cynthia E: We might get the breakout as I prepare them. 9:59 MikeS: Take care JoJo 10:01 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 10

11 10:01 Cynthia E: Here is the summary :01 Cynthia E: We opened with a bounce to retest that breakout high - but we did not get the Continuation Long. 10:02 Cynthia E: Rather we got a lower high, and rotation back down to retest 2811 and CL rallied up to meet price at that test. 10:02 Cynthia E: From there - buyers tried again for the Continuation, but once again another lower high. 10:02 Cynthia E: This time it led to the break in the lows or our CL Break Short. 10:02 Cynthia E: Now the range has narrowed even further, and there is a lot of indecision right around 2811 and the DO at :04 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 11

12 10:04 Cynthia E: Here is the summary histogram! 10:05 Cynthia E: We have SUPPORT above the POC which confirms that for NOW the focus is not on additional Dynamic Shift pressure back toward :05 Cynthia E: However, on the top side, bulls are still struggling at Friday's LOWER distribution, just like they did yesterday. 10:05 JerryH: Thx Cyn 10:06 Mehnaz: :06 Cynthia E: Great job Mehnaz! 10:06 MikeS: Good job Mehnaz 10:06 Cynthia E: Yes! There was the CLOSE above 2813, so the LONG is in play at this point. 10:06 Mehnaz: Thanks 12

13 10:06 Cynthia E: I was preparing the charts and didn't get an entry. 10:06 Cynthia E: Add em up Mehnaz - that works for SMILES also! 10:07 Cynthia E: Great job today team! 10:07 Cynthia E: Much better patience with the INDECISION of the market than yesterday! 10:07 Cynthia E: See - if we focus on LEARNING from days like yesterday - it creates substantial value for our trading in future days! ;) 10:07 Cynthia E: Have a fantastic afternoon everyone! I'll see you back here tomorrow! 10:07 Cynthia E: Bye! 10:07 MikeS: Thanks Cyn! 10:07 Mehnaz: bye End of Chat Roll for Tuesday, July 31,