Be grateful! Be happy with what you have while working for what you want! ~ H. Keller

Transcription

1 Fluidity Trader Chat Room w/cynthia E. - Thursday, November 29, 2018: Page Begin Page End Chat Roll Time Thursday CENTRAL Time Zone 6:30 *** Hello Fluidity Team Traders Welcome! *** 6:30 *** DAILY TRADE TIP *** *** Be grateful! Be happy with what you have while working for what you want! ~ H. Keller 4:27 forty1973: Good Morning Traders!! 7:40 Saffa: gm 7:48 chicky527: gm all! 7:59 tsurf: Good morning all 8:01 Case: Good morning. Yikes it's cold, 8:02 MikeS: Good morning! 8:02 Cynthia E: Good Morning Team! 8:03 Cynthia E: LOL Case! We get a nice day here today! Supposed to be 60+, but that will change quick. On Sunday it's supposed to get down to 19! :) 8:04 Case: That's too cold. Run away. 8:04 Cynthia E: I wish! But my ponies might not like that too much - they enjoy getting fed! Haha 8:06 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 1

2 8:06 Cynthia E: Here is the overnight histogram. 8:06 Cynthia E: Spike rules are in play here this morning. 8:06 MikeS: Cold yesterday and today here in NC. Forecast for Sunday is 74. That time of year. 8:06 Cynthia E: We are indeed opening INSIDE rather than opening in position to immediately establish the YC/YH as new support for continued 1 TF UP extension on the daily. 8:07 Crosseyed: GM All! 2

3 8:07 Cynthia E: GM! 8:08 Cynthia E: Currently we are in position to actually open at the spike support to test for a bounce or for re-entry into the upper balance range. 8:08 Cynthia E: Remember with yesterday being a double distribution, each balance acts as a separate balance range. 8:08 Cynthia E: So re-entry at the spike support will target the upper balance low at :09 Cynthia E: The single prints in G period act as EXCESS or a gap. 8:09 Cynthia E: Then we have the lower balance range. 8:09 Cynthia E: With overnight inventory 100% short, we'll watch this morning to see if we get a short cover squeeze that holds support at the spike support to rally back up and through the YH. 8:10 Cynthia E: If not, then our spike is likely to act as an excess high! 8:10 Case: When you have a mini green line on 3600, do you wait for the close or not? 8:10 Cynthia E: However, as you might have noticed, we have an intraday poor high on the spike high. 8:10 Cynthia E: So that means that intraday, ST/DTF buyers 'ran out of steam' 8:11 Cynthia E: If you are waiting for closes Case, it means that you are trading the time frame, and you would need to significantly expand your risk range. In addition you would be targeting a much larger profit as well. 8:12 Cynthia E: Your profit and risk should be based on the time frame that you are actually trading, and your trade triggers must also come from the same time frame! 8:13 Cynthia E: 8:13 Cynthia E: On this morning, we can see that yesterday's uptrend added significant extension to the upward drive off the swing low. 8:14 Cynthia E: And take note here that even though price has dropped below CL, that the actual series of HIGHER LOWS has not YET been broken. 8:14 Cynthia E: So in the 3600 we are going to be bearish with price below CL, but we have to be a bit more cautious for bullish continuation. 8:15 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 3

4 8:15 Cynthia E: So here is our :16 Cynthia E: We have the upward trend, and we can see that the pull back is an extended retracement. 8:16 Cynthia E: So we are neutral to bearish with price below CL, the LT STO headed down, and the ERG below zero, but as mentioned, we really need to focus on whether the longer term pattern holds (on 14400) or is broken. 8:16 Cynthia E: Let's set up our levels. 8:17 Cynthia E: See Chart on Next Page: 4

5 8:17 Cynthia E: We have our GREEN line at the YH swing high at :18 Cynthia E: And the RED is at the ONL swing low at :18 Cynthia E: And that level will coincide with a move to a lower low on at :18 Cynthia E: Okay - take the final time for review and get set and ready to go. 8:22 Andy: morning after trend day, big trend yday, alert for 2 way trade till lunch session 8:22 Cynthia E: Excellent reminder Andy - and VERY often true!! 8:27 Cynthia E: 2 mins to go 8:30 Cynthia E: Layla 8:30 Cynthia E: Off we go! 8:30 Cynthia E: DO = :31 Cynthia E: First test of the spike support is holding 8:36 Phoenix: GM 8:36 Cynthia E: GM 8:38 Cynthia E: I will not be looking at mini- levels inside our pre-market levels. 8:39 Cynthia E: Particularly with Andy's reminder in place. 8:39 Cynthia E: We want to allow the market to shake out and determine some direction rather than getting caught in 'after trend day chop' 8:43 Cynthia E: I think Andy called this one right! ;) 5

6 8:43 MikeS: Yep 8:43 tsurf: :-) 8:49 Saffa: when the DO is the midline of the price action you know you are in chop chop mode 8:49 Cynthia E: Exactly! 8:50 Cynthia E: That is why it is said by histogram rules that rotation around the DO = a 'low' confidence open (vs. being a bull/bear TEST run, or even strong a bull/bear RUN). 8:50 tsurf: ya, PA has the DO surrounded 8:51 Cynthia E: :) 8:53 Saffa: while we wait... 8:53 Saffa: In a boomerang shop: "I'd like to buy a new boomerang please... 8:54 Saffa: Also, can you tell me how to throw the old one away?" 8:54 Cynthia E: haha 8:54 Saffa: that made me smile 8:54 Cynthia E: lol 8:55 tsurf: lol 8:57 Andy: time change 3m 8:59 Cynthia E: Andy - I think you tied the market's hands to its chair ;) 8:59 Case: Report at 10am 9:01 Andy: :) 9:02 Cynthia E: Well we made it through the whole first half hour, now we're in C period and we're still testing the spike support. 9:02 Cynthia E: MAYBE seeing signs of upper balance re-entry 9:03 Cynthia E: With resistance at HW / DO 9:06 Cynthia E: So in other news (relative to the Morning Update) - this 'inside start' certainly puts the retest of the SMA 200 on hold! 9:06 Cynthia E: Will be interesting to see if it occurs today or tomorrow prior to the monthly close. 9:06 MikeS: Yes it does 9:06 Cynthia E: Or if it is held into December 9:07 Cynthia E: So with all this chop - if we get down to 2729 for a support test, we would IDEALLY like to see a bounce PRIOR to a downside breakout. 9:07 Cynthia E: That would strengthen our ODDS at that level. 9:08 Cynthia E: If not we have to watch out for what Saffa noticed the other day... that the first move out often just removes stops. 9:08 MikeS: Cyn, why not considering yesterday's M period swing low as RL? 9:10 Cynthia E: It is certainly on the board there Mike, but the reason I went ahead and moved up to the ONL swing low was time! 9:11 Cynthia E: Remember our primary issue with 'wiggles' is that they often don't encompass TIME to validate themselves. 9:11 MikeS: OK. It's the stronger RL and also lines up with POC. 9:11 Cynthia E: In this case we can clearly see on that we had plenty of TIME (the whole N/O period for our cycle to a swing high, and then most of the overnight TIME to cycle to a new swing low. So it becomes a valid HIGHER LOW by TIME. 9:12 MikeS: On 14400, I have RL at :13 Cynthia E: Correct - it's sitting higher than on the 3600 (that's just due to candle count and position of bodies vs. wicks) 9:14 MikeS: OK 9:19 Cynthia E: Here is our first CHANGE of the morning. 9:19 Cynthia E: Let's see if this triggers more pressure against yesterday's 'net longs' or if this attracts initiative buyers for a support bounce. 9:22 Cynthia E: Approaching the RED line test 9:27 Andy: time change 3m 9:30 Cynthia E: Wow! 9:30 Deni: good grief 9:31 Andy: oh boy 9:31 Cynthia E: Well here is the bounce we wanted! ;) 9:31 Deni: lol 6

7 9:31 Saffa: goodness me 9:31 Deni: my charts are not with my dome 9:32 Cynthia E: Very THIN dom here team! Be very careful. 9:32 Cynthia E: Me either Deni - my DOM isn't keeping up 9:32 Cynthia E: I've lost my volume at price on my DOM here 9:32 Saffa: yes maybe best to stand aside 9:32 Cynthia E: Definitely! 9:33 Cynthia E: We are still INSIDE our initial range despite this sudden jump to increased volatility 9:34 Cynthia E: Now my DOM is catching back up 9:35 Cynthia E: AND - now our RED line at 2729 has better validity 9:35 Cynthia E: That bounce re-establishes that range as a 'current' level (rather than just an overnight level) 9:36 Cynthia E: And we do NOT move the RED line to :36 Cynthia E: We always force the market to PROVE more not less. 9:36 Case: When it's volatile, what stop loss do you use? 9:37 Cynthia E: So if that volatility had extended the RED DOWN a smidge - we WOULD adjust the RED to say (if that's where it had fallen), but we do NOT move it up, like in this case. 9:37 Cynthia E: It is best to SOH in times of volatility like this Case. 9:37 Cynthia E: The ONLY real stop you can use is your emergency stop (6-10 pts out), and on either side of the market even that is likely to get hit. 9:38 Saffa: alot of the time the market will try to return to the initial burst of support/resistance for validation before continuation 9:38 Cynthia E: If you put in a close range stop like -2, you are basically making it like a % chance that your stop WILL get hit 9:38 Cynthia E: So in those cases you are just giving your money to the market. 9:40 Cynthia E: 1 tick close! No go 9:41 Saffa: Dow jumps after President Trump says he is close to doing something with China on trade 9:42 Crosseyed: Saffa: Yes but he would not elaborate so it could be more tariffs or a deal. 9:44 Cynthia E: Here is our CLOSE below 9:44 Cynthia E: And our bounce back toward the LIS at 2729/ :50 MikeS: +3 9:50 tsurf: wtg Mike! Great job 9:50 Cynthia E: Great job Mike! 9:50 JerryH: wtg Mike 9:50 MikeS: Thanks 9:50 Cynthia E: BOOM at :50 Cynthia E: Was a little behind you Mike 9:50 Cynthia E: Yeah! Great job Case! 9:50 MikeS: Thanks. Good job Cyn 9:51 tsurf: Alrighty Cyn! 9:51 Phoenix: WTG 9:51 MikeS: Good job Case 9:51 JerryH: nice cyn 9:51 Saffa: go team go 9:51 Cynthia E: Great patience to avoid the volatility there and then wait for the market to calm down and setup a good entry for you Case! Very nicely done! 9:51 tsurf: and Case, rocking it 9:51 Cynthia E: Well that was actually surprising after the mess we saw this morning to get a nice clean setup in play. 9:51 Case: TY 9:51 Cynthia E: Let's review that trade and summarize for the day. 9:51 Cynthia E: Does that make sense on the stops Case? 9:52 Case: Yes 9:52 Cynthia E: A ton of day traders think a 'good' way to control risk is to put stops tight around market action (close to current price), but what they are actually doing is ensuring those stops will get hit. 9:52 Cynthia E: That is simply because we KNOW the NATURAL ATR (average true range) or natural rotation of /ES is bigger than 2-3 pts. 7

8 9:53 Cynthia E: So if you try to CONTROL risk by putting HARD stops at -1 or -2 - they will just ALWAYS get taken out, 99.9% of the time. 9:54 Cynthia E: So that basically just isn't a good substitute for 'control' during increased volatility. 9:54 Cynthia E: Because the higher the volatility the HIGHER the odds that those tight stops will get run through. 9:54 Cynthia E: Better to just stay the course, let our defined trades setup and then manage them normally. 9:54 Cynthia E: And if we see crazy pops like that - better to just SOH. 9:55 Cynthia E: That is precisely WHY we do not leave trades open during FED Announcements. 9:55 Cynthia E: Same exact reason 9:55 Cynthia E: Even +10 /-10 stops can get wiped out on FED announcements 9:55 Cynthia E: If the volatility ramps up 9:57 Andy: time change 3m 9:57 Cynthia E: 9:57 Cynthia E: Here is the summary :57 Cynthia E: Chop throughout the morning but WITHIN our pre-market range, so that gave us a rock solid SOH signal! 9:57 Cynthia E: That concept is just as important as knowing when to trade. A signal for SOH is critical! 9:58 Cynthia E: Then just as hoped... let me repost the line. 9:58 Cynthia E: REPOST: 9:07 Cynthia E: So with all this chop - if we get down to 2729 for a support test, we would IDEALLY like to see a bounce PRIOR to a downside breakout. 9:07 Cynthia E: That would strengthen our ODDS at that level. 9:58 Cynthia E: We got it! A nice bounce off the first test at :58 Cynthia E: It came with some crazy volatility, but it created a nice confirmed LOWER HIGH on the top there. 9:59 Cynthia E: And it reinforced our RED for better ODDS. 9:59 Cynthia E: Then we got the close below, and the bounce back for our 'ideal' entry close to the LIS. 9:59 Cynthia E: And BOOM! Points in the Bank! 9:59 Cynthia E: Great job traders! 8

9 10:00 Cynthia E: 10:00 Cynthia E: On histogram - all that early consolidation was TESTING spike support. 10:01 Cynthia E: Ultimately all the tests to get back the YC/YH failed, leaving the top of the spike as EXCESS, and price re-entered the UPPER balance. 10:01 Cynthia E: The destination is now the UPPER Balance LOW at :01 Cynthia E: Comments or questions today? 10:01 MikeS: All good. Thanks Cyn! 10:01 JerryH: thx 10:02 Saffa: thx Cyn 10:02 tsurf: Thanks Cyn :-) 9

10 10:02 Case: Ty, I'm getting a tiny bit better at this. Lol 10:02 Andy: thx Cyn 10:02 Cynthia E: You're looking pretty good to me Case! 10:03 Cynthia E: I see your thumb's up and smiles fairly often! 10:03 Case: Before, I would have been trading in the chop zone and losing my arse. 10:03 Cynthia E: Lots and lots of questions Case - never hesitate to ask! 10:03 Cynthia E: I hear ya! MEE TOO and MEE THREE!! :) 10:04 Cynthia E: As I said - that SOH signal is veeeery, veeeery important (said in the voice of Elmer Fudd) :) 10:05 Cynthia E: That's a wrap! 10:05 Cynthia E: Everyone have a FANTASTIC day! 10:05 JerryH: Thx Cyn 10:05 Cynthia E: We're back for Rockin' Friday tomorrow and we'll finish out this week and the month of November! 10:05 Cynthia E: Thanks guys! 10:05 Cynthia E: Adios! 10:22 Andy: gotta love the algos 10:22 tsurf: lol 10:22 Saffa: indeed 10:22 tsurf: some crazy spikes lately 10:22 Andy: 8 pt rip 10:23 Andy: thin DOM, makes the whipsaws easier 10:23 tsurf: that'll blow out some stops 10:25 Andy: I was set to try That s all they are doing STF stop hunters 10:28 Andy: guess we will try the highs now 10:29 Saffa: yip 10:29 Andy: any kind if trade whisper or interest rate headlines, robots go crazy 10:31 Saffa: long wicks in both directions 10:33 Andy: D period hod & lod, don't have stats on this at first glance, but I wud bet very rare, watch for the break out 10:34 Saffa: yes indeed 10:34 MikeS: Outta here team. Catch up in the morning. Have great day! 10:34 Saffa: let us see reaction at DO 10:34 Saffa: bye Mike 10:41 Andy: 3600 rotations here 4.25pts 10:57 Saffa: can they hold DO now for upside breakout End of Chat Roll for Thursday, November 08,