Market Evaluation & Identification of Key Prospects

Transcription

1 Market Evaluation & Identifiation of Key Prospets Summary 2 1. Estimation of TV hannels numbers 3 2. Segmentation by TV-hannel ategory 5 3. Segmentation by ountry ategory 7 4. Different ategories of installations & projets 8 5. Estimation of remaining projets 9 6. Estimation of future leads and opportunities Priing of projets End results 14

2 Summary Soures List of TV- Channels & groups Segmentation of TV hannels:premium, syndiations Segmentation of Countries ABCD Segmentation of the market 11 segments Existing installations Remaining installations Future Leads/segment Leads Future Leads/Market estimates 2

3 1. Estimation of TV-hannels number Several priniples: First, ompletes an exhaustive list of TV stations (existing and future TV projets) gained from several soures of information. Soure European Observatory of Audiovisual (Persky database) Sat Adress Searh on the Internet own s investigation Region European ountries Middle East, Afria, CIS, South Asia Middle East, Afria, CIS, South Asia Uzbekistan makes a first estimate of possible installations based on this list of hannels: Eah media group (premium, national, regional or international syndiation) produes news, and so do all its regional stations, as well as all generalist independant national or international hannels Eah station needs a playout enter of one sort or another, but the entral ast model is inreasingly prevalent. We postulate a big entral playout per group or syndiation. However, for premium groups we try to assess the real number of playout failities: BSkyB is more entralised than Frane Televisions for instane. There is a omparable hypothesis for sports and other prodution (feature, doumentaries, shows, autopromos). 3

4 2. Segmentation by TV hannels ategory has developed a segmentation for TV stations based on 3 fats: 5 ategories of lient in the broadast market: premium groups, national hannels, regional hannels, international hannels and operators (able, satellite or digital terrestrial) Premium hannels (more than 7% audiene in its national market) and their groups have greater purhasing power than all other hannels Among national, regional and international TV hannels: a syndiator and its affiliates have more purhasing power than independant TV hannels. 4

5 2. Segmentation by TV hannels ategory 2305 hannels: 717 produed by premium networks nationwide audiene hannels regional/loal hannels + 12 international Premium groups (1) Premium network (1) Premium hannels 1. Premium networks National hannels Regional & loal stations International hannels Total hannels National hannels (outside premium network) (2) Media groups (non premium) (3) Network Affiliates Independant national National hannels Total hannels inl. 89 national 3. Regional and loal (2) and 26 multinational Network Affiliates Independant hannels Regional and loal hannels total (1) 168 «premium networks» in the Rest of Emea (syndiation with premium hannels): Only 6 multinational groups (2) For eah ategory, separates independent hannels from networks and their affiliates International hannels (2) Network Affiliates Independant # hannels broadast foreign market #Total hannels 2305 (3) Again, there is a differene between the onsolidated number of networks (115) and the number of presene of networks in the EEMEA ountries ( =136). MTV is present in 2 ountries for instane 5

6 2. Segmentation by TV hannels ategory 6

7 3. Segmentation by ountry ategory We split ountries into 4 ategories depending on the purhasing power of their TV hannels: UAE hannels have more money than those in Burkina Faso Country Category Server penetration Future projets A B C A majority of premium and syndiations have got server-based playout and news prodution A minority of premium and syndiations have got server-based playout and news prodution Few premium "pioneer" have got serverbased playout and news prodution All hannels may have a projet Premium groups, syndiations and operators only are likely to have a projet Premium and syndiation only D Everybody is still on tape Only premium 7

8 4. Different ategories of installations & projets We identify 11 different segments aording to installation size and ategory. It is obvious that there are playout enters of all sizes. We identify 5: big, medium, small, very small and very very small. The 2 last ategories an be desribes as «TV in a box» and are used by loal or ommunity TVs, or installations suh as army bases. We also identify 3 sizes of installation for newsrooms, and 3 sizes for sport & other prodution total hannels Category of investment budget A B C D News (1.5m) Sports (1m) premium network 600k ^ Playout (.8m) News (500k) premium networks premium networks Prog prod (400k) Playout (300k) others premium networks News (150k) others Prodution (150k) 100k ^ Playout (150k) others 20k ^ News/Playout (70k) News/Playout (20k) Total m Slower route to digital estimate

9 5. Estimation on remaining projets On the other hand, the list of existing installations is permananently updated by and derived from our benhmark studies «Newsroom» and «MAM». It plays the following role: if a station has reently aquired a server-based prodution system, (news, sport, other), or server-based playout, this TVstation will not make the investment again before the end of the system s eonomi lifetime (typially 2007). Remaining # of installations = Original # of installations - # of reent installations 9

10 6. Estimation of future leads and opportunities tries to ontat diretly all premium hannels in the most important ountries. Where the ountries are too numerous, we work from a representative sample. For instane number of interviews In EEMEA Eastern Europe (non EC), Afria, CIS, South Asia Interviews Companies TV-Channels Integrators Vendors 11 9 Consultants 10 4 Total Country Organisation Person Title Date Visit/phone 1. Televisions Dubai Reuters Samir SABBAH Head of Middle East June 04 visit Qatar Al Jazeera Wadah KHANFAR Managing Diretor June 04 visit Qatar Al Jazeera Omar BEC MERHEBI Head of News Gathering June 04 visit Qatar Al Jazeera Hussein JAAFAR Tehnial Manager June 04 visit Qatar Al Jazeera Salh SIDIQUI IT Manager June 04 visit Qatar QatarTV Abdulrahman ALOBAIDAN Diretor of Broadast June 04 visit Qatar QatarTV Mohammed Rashid AL- News Controller June 04 visit SAHLAWI Qatar QatarTV Ahmed ODEH Projet Leader Digitization June 04 visit Dubai DubaiTV Badria AL SHAMCY IT Diretor June 04 visit Dubai DubaiTV Mr. MOHSIN Tehnial Manager June 04 visit Dubai MBC Amill LONE IT Diretor/Station Engineer June 04 visit Dubai CNBC Al Arabiya Aaron SHAW Tehnial Manager June 04 visit Dubai E Vision Fabrie PRAINO Sr. Engineer Operations Sept.04 IBC meeting Dubai ETISALAT Abdulrahman ALMULLA Manager Engineering CATV Sept.04 IBC meeting Broadband Abu Dhabi ETISALAT Sultan AL DHAHARI Manager HFC Broadband Sept.04 IBC meeting Abu Dhabi Emirates/Abu Dhabi TV Abdullah ABDULADI Deputy Dr of Tehno. June 04 visit Abu Dhabi Emirates/Abu Dhabi TV Derek HOLLAND Head of IT June 04 visit Abu Dhabi Emirates/Abu Dhabi TV Nart BOURAN Diretor News Center June 04 visit Abu Dhabi Emirates/Abu Dhabi TV Mustapha ISHAG Tehnial Adviser June 04 visit Kuwait KTV Ali ALQLAF Tehnial Diretor August 04 phone Israel RRSAT TV Ziv MOR Diretor August 04 phone Israel Channel2 News David YOGEV Diretor of Engineering June 03 visit 10

11 6. Estimation of future leads and opportunities List of leads Leads TV Channel Country Projet Category Year Al Jazeera Qatar Youth Channel Playout 2004 Al Jazeera Qatar International Channel Newsroom 2005 AntenaTV Greee National Newsroom Newsroom 2005 Yes TV Israel Cable TV Playout 2005 In addition we make an estimate of the «rhythm» of ompletion in eah segment based both on real leads, and on the previous installation pattern (how many in 2002, 2003, 2004?) Not everything that is left over as possible installations will be implemented by broadasters within the next 3 years ( is the sope). For other prodution systems, and for sport, installation varried out by broadasters themselves are more exeptional ( there is a lot of sub-ontrating, and very few installations among broadasters for the moment). So we have made another estimate. 11

12 7. Priing of projets Estimation in numbers of installations is transformed into estimations in Euros by using average pries of installations. There are 3 ways to use this market sizing : One for server vendors, interested in servers and editing solutions One for automation-mam vendors interested only in these 2 aspets of the market One for integrators, interested by total installation projets. We integrate the MAM and automation estimates, beause these 2 markets are merging, having in ommon media ontrol and movements, as well as ingest. Even playout entres tend to order a minimum of MAM nowadays : they need browse and smart indexing for instane for a lot of nie-to-have or even ompulsory appliations. Our vision Playout Centers of average pries of installations: Appliation Big Medium Small TVbox1 TVbox2 Automation & MAM Servers & editing Mass storage Video equipment/rest of the installation Total Without mass storage

13 7. Priing of projets News Prodution Appliation Big Medium Small Automation & MAM Servers & editing Mass storage Video equipment/rest of the installation Total Without MAM&automation &mass storage Medium solution Detail MAM& aurtomation Appliation Playout News Sports Playout Transfert Ingest Indexation basi Indexation MAM+servie Total Sport & other prodution Appliation Big Medium Small MAM Servers & editing Mass storage Video equipment/rest of the installation With mass storage Without MAM& mass storage Big Solutions Detail MAM& aurtomation Appliation Playout News Sports Playout Transfert Ingest Indexation basi Indexation MAM+servie Total

14 8. End results 11 segments estimated/alulated at 103m 2305 total hannels How many originally? How many gone? Numbers of installations How many Avid? How many remaining? # Opportunities Amount remaining (m) Amount opportunities (m) News (1.5m) ,0 13,5 Sports (1m) ,0 4,0 600k ^ Playout (.8m) ,6 6,4 News (500k) ,5 19,5 Prog prod (400k) ,8 2,8 Playout (300k) ,0 19,2 News (150k) ,1 16,1 Prodution (150k) ,0 0,0 100k ^ Playout (150k) ,3 20,6 20k ^ News/Playout (70k) ,7 0,7 News/Playout (20k) ,0 0,0 Total m 454,0 41,0 11,0 413,0 102,7 413,0 102,7 estimate estimate